In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, to break down the current cyclical and secular bull markets, how AI compares to past transformative periods, what rising rates have meant for valuations, and why international equities are becoming more attractive. They also touch on the role of gold and Bitcoin, how to think about barbell strategies, and what history teaches about market narratives.
Key Takeaways:
- Market Setup: Today’s environment features a cyclical bull market on top of a long-running secular bull market, similar to past periods like 1994 and the late 1990s.
- Interest Rates & Valuations: The 2022 market drop came largely from PE compression as rates jumped from near zero to 5%, while earnings actually grew.
- Historical Parallels: Timmer highlights similarities between today and both the late 1960s (loose fiscal policy, sticky inflation) and late 1990s (tech-driven excitement).
- Barbell Approach: A mix of mega-cap leaders and undervalued international equities may help manage concentration risk, especially as Europe and Japan boost payouts and trade at lower valuations.
- Gold & Bitcoin: Timmer views both as scarce, diversifying assets that hedge against periods when bonds may struggle, especially in potential fiscal-dominance environments.
- Small Caps vs. Large Caps: Small caps show mixed performance due to both traditional domestic exposure and speculative, unprofitable tech tied to AI.
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
Connect with Jurrien Timmer:
- LinkedIn: Jurrien Timmer
- X: @TimmerFidelity
Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
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