Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.

Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.

Stay on Top of Market Trends

The Carson Investment Research newsletter offers up-to-date market news, analysis and insights. Subscribe today!

Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.

Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.

What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.

Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

facebook twitter linkedin mail print
Share Post: facebook twitter linkedin mail print
Recent Posts

Five Takeaways From the Fed Meeting

By: Sonu Varghese
The Federal Reserve (Fed) chose to pause on interest rate hikes at their September meeting, leaving the federal funds rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. This was not unexpected, but the …

Excell is a Wrap

By: Ryan Detrick
What a week last week was! Carson Group hosted Excell, our largest event of the year, in the awesome town of Nashville. If you were there, then you know …

10 Reasons the Economy Has Been Resilient Despite an Aggressive Fed

By: Barry Gilbert
The Fed’s policy arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and is widely expected to keep the fed funds target range unchanged at 5.25 …

Miranda Reiter, Ph.D., CFP®: Diversity and Inclusion in Financial Planning

By: Jamie Hopkins
Introducing former financial planner and banker of several Fortune 500 firms, current Assistant Professor of Personal Financial Planning at Texas Tech University, and author, Miranda Reiter, Ph.D., CFP®. In …
1 2 3 202