“You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life, but it ain’t about how hard you can hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done!” Rocky Balboa in Rocky Balboa (aka Rocky VI from 2006)
First things first, I’m a huge Rocky IV fan, I just wanted to get that out right away. We all have a favorite Rocky movie, but him taking down Captain Ivan Drago had to have been a top highlight from my youth.
What does Rocky have to do with this market rally you ask? Well, much like when Rocky took a hard hit and sometimes got knocked down, he’d always get back up (except in his first fight with Clubber Lang in Rocky III, but he won the climactic rematch). This is quite similar with how the market has been acting lately. A perfect example is last Thursday. The S&P 500 fell over worries about President Trump and Elon Musk’s bromance deteriorating in real time for all of us to see. Then a funny thing happened—the next day the index soared right back and then some, closing above 6,000 for the first since February 21. Incredibly, the S&P is only about two percent away from a new all-time high, something that even the staunchest of bulls wasn’t expecting this time two months ago.
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Rocky might have lost at the end of Rocky I against the great Apollo Greed, but he came back bigger and better and won in Rocky II. In a lot of ways, this 2025 market is Rocky II, as a down day has seen the S&P 500 up an average of 0.29% this year, which would rank as one of the best years ever for average performance after a down day. Since 1980, only 2020 would be better than 2025 so far. Other years that saw big returns after down days were 2003, 2008, 2009, 2020, and of course now. Yes, 2008 was a horrible year for stocks, but those other three years were all solid after hiccups in the first quarter. Come to think of it, 2008 is a lot like Tommy Gunn in Rocky V, something no one has very positive memories of after all these years. The bottom line is this resilient market is yet another reason we expect to potentially see this bull market continue with a solid second half of the year.
Just like the amazing Rocky spin off Creed (and Creed II and III) starring Michael B. Jordan, sometimes it is good to diversify your storylines, just like it is to diversify your equity holdings. Although US returns have been fairly muted this year after the back-to-back 20% gains the previous two years, what might surprise many US investors is that most global stock markets are up nicely, with many making new 52-week or all-time highs. This is why having a globally diversified portfolio can benefit US-centric investors, as the US won’t always lead. The good news is we do anticipate the US may play catch up the rest of 2025, but big picture, this is a global bull market and investors are being rewarded for being in risk assets.
Thanks for reading and I’ll leave you with this hilarious back-and-forth between Rocky and his beloved trainer Mickey.
Mickey: Your nose is broken.
Rocky: How does it look?
Mickey: Ah, it’s an improvement.
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For more content by Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist click here
