Takeaways from Five Unusual Things Markets Did in 2025
The S&P 500 could still top 20% three years in a row, something that’s only happened one other time since 1929. The EAFE Value Index is ahead of the Russell 1000 Growth Index by almost 20%-points—the last time EAFE Value outperformed in a year both were higher was 2006. The Bloomberg Gold Index is up …
The Fed Comes Bearing Gifts
The Federal Reserve cut rates once again, taking policy rates down to the 3.50-3.75% range. This was as expected, but the chatter before the meeting was that this would be a “hawkish cut”. On the contrary, as I’ll discuss below. But even otherwise, it’s hard to say a cut is hawkish when it comes on …
10 Years Ago
“If you are going through hell, keep going.” Winston Churchill 10 years ago yesterday I was doing some work at home in our basement and suddenly heard a large crash in our garage. I ran upstairs to see what it was and saw that the entire ceiling had collapsed. Parts of the ceiling were hanging …
Is Reacceleration in the Cards?
In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese dig into the market’s latest shift toward a potential economic reacceleration, looking at rising global yields, what the renewed steepening of the yield curve may signal, and how broadening market leadership is shaping their outlook. They go through the rebound in tech, …
Beware! Your Old Mutual Funds Are About to Pay Capital Gains
The holidays are here, and so is the gift that keeps on giving. Traditional mutual funds have enjoyed three strong years of equity market returns and an even longer period of consistent outflows. Taken together, that is a recipe — as good as grandma’s pumpkin pie — for another banner year for capital gains distributions. …
Inflation Eases Enough, Giving the Fed Room to Cut
It’s been a while since we got any macroeconomic data thanks to the government shutdown. The most recent official payroll report for September was released a couple of weeks ago, and it showed that the unemployment rate continues to move higher, hitting 4.44% in September. While other data, like initial claims for unemployment benefits, points …
The Magnificent 7 Has A New Look – Broadcom’s Banner Year
Investors referring to the ‘Magnificent 7’ ought to update their rolodex. Broadcom has quietly become the seventh largest stock in the S&P 500, surpassing Tesla. Perhaps ‘Elite 8’ is a better title for these stocks. Broadcom has marched higher this year, registering the second-best year to date stock price gain amongst the largest stocks in …
A Strong Year Driven by Profits, More Than Overcoming Any Drag From Tariffs
The S&P 500 gained 17.8% over the last 11 months, including dividends. The November return of 0.1% was its 7th straight month of gains, and the index is now just 1% off its all-time highs. While the index was near flat for the month of November, next 12-month earnings rose another 2%, which meant earnings …
Back to December
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the sharp late-November market swings, why December historically favors gains, and how shifting Fed expectations have driven sentiment. They break down sector rotation, the surprising divergence between crypto and junk tech, the return …
Seven Reasons December Should Be a Strong Month for Stocks
“I go back to December all the time.” Taylor Swift from her song Back to December I’m going to sound like an old guy, but can you believe it is December already!? Last week saw one of the best weeks of the year for stocks, as it was your typical late November seasonal strength. The …
The Growing (and Evolving) Use of AI
The use of artificial intelligence in modern workplaces is growing and evolving. Two recent studies – McKinsey’s ‘The state of AI in 2025’ and Perplexity’s ‘Perplexity at Work’ – offer some insights into both trends and help illustrate the breadth of AI adoption. AI Has Become an Imperative The use of AI in the workplace …