Investments
The Tariff Man Cometh, but What’s the Playbook?
On February 1st, President Trump signed executive orders (EO) imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, effective 12:01am February 4th. The orders included: 25% tariffs on Canada, apart from energy imports (tariffed at 10%) 25% tariffs on Mexico 10% tariffs on China These tariffs applied to all goods and would be over and above existing …
Sonu Varghese
February 4, 2025
Project Stargate
Project Stargate was announced on January 21st, 2025. According to OpenAI, one of the partners in the project, Stargate aims to “invest $500 billion over the next four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.”1 The newly created company will have its work cut out for it. Artificial Intelligence (AI) research …
Blake Anderson
February 3, 2025
As Goes January, So Goes the Year? The Bulls Hope So.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Mark Twain An effect widely known as the January Barometer looks at how the S&P 500 does in January and what it may mean for the next 11 months. It is known by …
Ryan Detrick
January 31, 2025
The Fed Hits the Snooze Button, but That Poses Problems
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) January 2025 meeting held no surprises. They maintained policy rates within the 4.25-4.50% range and continued to trim their bond portfolio, as expected. However, their official statement did see a small, but notable, change. They did highlight that the unemployment rate has stabilized at low levels, but inflation remains “somewhat elevated.” …
Sonu Varghese
January 30, 2025
Year of the Snake? More Like Year of the Bear
“Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.” -Old Wall Street saying We already had our New Year here in the United States, but the Chinese New Year begins today and with it brings the Year of the Snake. The snake is the sixth of the twelve-year cycle of animals that appear in the Chinese Zodiac. …
Ryan Detrick
January 29, 2025
Is Tech in DeepSeek?
Artificial Intelligence is reshaping industries and global competition, and understanding its market impact is critical. How do advancements like DeepSeek’s AI change the game? What does it mean for the global economy, technology stocks, and U.S.-China relations? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist …
Ryan Detrick
January 29, 2025
DeepSeek: Did China Just Eat America’s AI Lunch?
DeepSeek, a small Chinese Artificial Intelligence (AI) startup, shook the AI world last weekend. In short, DeepSeek created an AI model that appears to be as powerful as the existing ones out there. And most importantly, they did it with much less money. DeepSeek’s AI chatbot also soared to the top of the Apple App …
Sonu Varghese
January 28, 2025
Under the Hood: Technology Earnings Preview
Technology stocks find themselves at a pivotal crossroads ahead of this earnings season. Price action and fundamentals are beginning to send mixed signals. Active equity investors are likely to scrutinize both the quarter’s results and full-year outlook for the sector’s constituents to assess whether forward estimates are attainable. The technology sector, as proxied by XLK …
Blake Anderson
January 27, 2025
Some Good News for the Bulls
“I am an optimist because I don’t see the point in being anything else.” Abraham Lincoln What a start to 2025, nearly picking up where 2024 left off. Yes, stocks fell in December and during the historically bullish Santa Claus Rally period, but the S&P 500 just made another new all-time high and is up …
Ryan Detrick
January 24, 2025
Guess Who’s Back
The investing world is buzzing as markets rally, inflation softens, and a familiar political figure makes headlines. How do these factors shape the current economic picture? What are the implications for portfolios and policies in the months ahead? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro …
Ryan Detrick
January 22, 2025
Markets Have Cheered Trump Administration Post-Election, but Less Enthusiastically Than in 2016
The S&P 500 rallied 2.9% last week ahead of inauguration day, helped by some positive inflation news and a strong start to earnings season. The move pushed the index into positive territory for the year, although still 1.6% below the December 6, 2024 all-time high as of Friday. Monday was inauguration day, a good moment …
Barry Gilbert
January 22, 2025
Outlook 2025: Diversifying Diversifiers and Using Capital Efficiency to Do It
One thing we try to do with our 2025 Outlook: Animal Spirits, which we released last week, is translate our views into portfolio actions, since that’s ultimately what matters. You won’t have to dig far to see how our Carson House Views are woven throughout, making it convenient to access advice and insights that align …
Sonu Varghese
January 21, 2025