Investments
The US Economy: This Time Was Different, and That’s a Big Deal
We got a rollicking GDP report on Thursday, showing the economy expanded at an annual pace of 3.3% after adjusting for inflation. That was well above forecasts of 1.8%. Yet again, the economy continues to be underestimated – a topic we’ve discussed on these pages time and time again. By now we were supposed to …
Sonu Varghese
January 26, 2024
Closely Watched Leading Indicators Are Turning, and That May Be Good For Markets
Closely Watched Leading Indicators Are Turning, and That May Be Good For Markets At Carson Investment Research, we have a proprietary set of leading indicators for countries and regions that inform our process and kept us clear of near universal recession calls at the end of 2022. (For the most recent update of our indicators, …
Barry Gilbert
January 25, 2024
Please Don’t Stress Yourself About “M2”
If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, read on, but maybe grab a cup of coffee or your favorite beverage. M2 is a measure of money in the economy, and right now it’s falling, which has led to any number of overhyped worries, including a deflationary recession and/or a stock market crash, as people are …
Sonu Varghese
January 24, 2024
Can You Take Me Higher
Now that the stock market has reached its all-time high, what can we expect? Which ways can the latest economic indicators and international markets affect us? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the stock market’s recent all-time highs …
Ryan Detrick
January 24, 2024
Outlook ’24: Leading Economic Indicators Point to Continued Growth
Last year, the Carson Investment Research team did not see eye to eye on leading economic indicators compared to the widely used Conference Board Leading Economic Index. For 2024, our proprietary leading economic index (LEI) for the U.S. points to on-trend economic growth and remains far from a recession signal. Our index includes more than …
Sonu Varghese
January 24, 2024
Six Things to Know About All-Time Highs
“Can you take me higher? To a place where blind men see. Can you take me higher? To a place with golden streets.” Higher by Scott Stapp of Creed After a wait of more than two years, the S&P 500 finally closed at an all-time high last Friday. That’s right, the last time it hit …
Ryan Detrick
January 23, 2024
Elevating Women in the Workplace: Sponsorship vs Mentorship
Despite decades of spotlight on the issue, the representation of women in corporate leadership remains persistently low and is not improving at a pace that would bring about sufficient change. The underrepresentation is evident at every level of management, but the problem worsens on the journey to the top. A Harvard Business Review from 2010 …
Carson Group
January 22, 2024
BONDS ARE BACK, BUT STOCKS LOOK BETTER
Carson Investment Research just released our 2024 Market Outlook, “Seeing Eye to Eye”. While our view on the economy leads us to favor stocks over bonds in 2024, we believe that bonds are poised to return to their traditional roles as a portfolio stabilizer and source of diversification. One traditional role they’re already playing again: …
Barry Gilbert
January 18, 2024
Rate Cuts Are Now on the Horizon, But There’s Uncertainty Over Timing
We just released our 2024 Market Outlook, “Seeing Eye to Eye”. We took an unpopular contrarian stance in 2023, calling for the economic expansion to continue and stocks to post solid gains. This was based on what we saw in the data, and since then consensus opinion has moved toward our view in 2024. Still, …
Sonu Varghese
January 17, 2024
The Little Things May Add Up
The world is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities in 2024. From geopolitical tensions and trade wars to technological innovations and environmental issues. How can investors navigate these times? How will the emergence of cryptocurrencies and digital assets affect the financial system and regulation? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & …
Ryan Detrick
January 17, 2024
Outlook ’24: Productivity Growth Will Drive Economic Opportunity in 2024
While the Carson Investment Research team’s economic views for 2024 are more aligned with the consensus than in 2023, we take a different view on what the drivers of economic growth will be, emphasizing the upside from productivity growth that may differentiate the current central bank-tightening cycle from typical cases in the past. That view …
Sonu Varghese
January 17, 2024
Under the Hood: Fourth Quarter Earnings Kickoff
JP Morgan kicked off earnings season on Friday as the bank wrapped up its most profitable year ever. While the prospect of lower interest rates in 2024 may temper record profits, the outlook was more optimistic than anticipated. Jamie Dimon, the bank’s Chairman and CEO, acknowledged that the company is over-earning on both interest income …
Carson Group
January 16, 2024