Insights Investments

Every quarter the New York Federal Reserve releases its household credit and debt report and we get a flurry of headlines about rising credit card debt, and rising delinquencies. As always with these things, it’s important to maintain some perspective.  One: Household Leverage is Actually Reducing Credit card debt rose 3.9% last quarter (Q4 2024) …

Let’s get it on the table. Of all the charts that raise concerns for me about the economy right now, despite a still solid base case, the one below worries me the most. Not for what it represents in itself but for what it says about where we are in the cycle in general. The …

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the rising cost of eggs and other factors contributing to inflation stickiness. They also discuss the stock market flirting with an all-time high, when to expect cuts from the Fed, and much more. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500 is near an …

“There are no bad assets, only bad prices.” Howard Marks, Co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management As of last Friday, the S&P 500 was only 0.07% away from yet another new all-time high. It is up a very solid 4.0% year to date, after gaining 23% last year and 24% in 2023. (Both were over 25% …

Over the last two years, markets have been able to tune out a pretty dour national mood, with the S&P 500 gaining 25%+ in 2023 and 2024. In fact, real GDP growth clocked in at 2.9% annualized over the last two years, above the pre-pandemic trend. Sentiment was downbeat, but this didn’t really crimp consumer …

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the biggest economic and market concerns beyond tariffs. They dive into historical market indicators, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, employment trends, and whether the third year of a bull market signals trouble. The duo also touches on global markets, the …

“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” -Dr. Seuss   Yes, we’ve remained in the bullish camp for more than two years now and continue to expect 2025 to see stock gains between 12-15%, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have worries. Of course, like everyone else, tariffs are indeed a big …

Investors digested results from six of the ‘Magnificent 7’ in the past two weeks. After A Magnificent Year, it is time for the companies to deliver the rise in earnings to support their lofty stock prices. Unfortunately, only one company, Meta Platforms, shows positive performance since reporting. This stock price performance for the group reflects …

The economy created just 143,000 jobs in January, well below expectations for a 175,000 increase, and less than half of the gain in December (which was revised up from 256,000 to 307,000). Over the last three months, job growth has averaged about 237,000 jobs, which is really strong. However, the payroll numbers are messy right …

There’s been a lot of chatter about cutbacks in federal government employment, including “buyout offers” (apparently even at the CIA). The deadline for accepting the buyout is February 6th, and reports suggest anywhere from 20,000-40,000 workers have accepted the offer. Irrespective of how you think about it (good, bad, ugly, or apocalyptic), there’s been some …

Watch the Investment Research Team’s timely livestream as they break down President Trump’s weekend announcement of significant tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, set to be implemented on February 4th. Amid uncertainty over whether these measures will be enforced and how the affected countries might retaliate, Carson’s Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and VP, Global …