Investments
Why We’re Not Too Worried About Rising Bankruptcies
Consumer credit card has recently been in the news after it hit a record $1 trillion. However, Ryan walked us through several reasons why this eye-popping number is not that concerning. On the business side, rising bankruptcies have also been making headlines month after month, as chapter 11 filings this year exceed what we saw …
Sonu Varghese
August 15, 2023
Why $1 Trillion in Credit Card Debt Isn’t a Bad Thing
“It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.” -Henry David Thoreau It finally happened, US consumers officially have more than $1 trillion in credit card debt, an all-time record. Not surprisingly, many claimed this was a sign the consumer was tapped out and simply spending and buying everything on credit cards. …
Ryan Detrick
August 11, 2023
Disinflation is Happening, And There’s More to Come
Inflation has been top of mind for investors over the past year and a half, both from the perspective of what that means for the economy as well as monetary policy. So, the latest release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks a basket of goods and services purchased by households, looms large every …
Sonu Varghese
August 10, 2023
Carson Research’s Strategic House Views – Using Multi-Dimensional Perspectives to Anchor Portfolios
We came into 2023 with a view that stocks would rebound quite strongly, and the economy would be able to avoid a recession. As a result, we were overweight stocks over bonds in our tactical portfolios. We continue to maintain this overweight, since we believe equities could see even more gains before the end of …
Sonu Varghese
August 9, 2023
From Devices to Dominance: Apple’s Services Business Hits a Record; Amazon May Not Be As Overvalued As You Think
“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” -Peter Drucker Last week, roughly 30% of the S&P 500 market cap reported earnings, and the spotlight was on Apple and Amazon. Despite the obligatory note of caution every CEO utters, I’m hearing companies talk a lot …
Carson Group
August 8, 2023
The Economy is Normalizing, and That’s a Good Thing
The economy created 187,000 jobs in July, slightly softer than the 200,000 that economists expected. The last couple of months were revised lower, and so it’s always helpful to take a 3-month average, which is now running at 218,000. That’s stronger than the pre-pandemic average of 183,000. In short, job growth remains strong. You will …
Sonu Varghese
August 4, 2023
11 Things to Know About the U.S. Debt Downgrade
“I don’t make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.” -Will Rogers What happened? Rating agency Fitch downgraded the U.S. government’s longer-term credit rating to AA+ from AAA. This was the second time in history a rating agency did this, as S&P Global Ratings did it in August 2011 after a government …
Ryan Detrick
August 3, 2023
Three Reasons Why US Consumers Are Feeling Better
Consumer confidence has been rising since last summer, and over the last couple of months, it has jumped even more. Both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board’s measures of consumer confidence have risen 22 points since last summer. A simple reason is… gas prices. Confidence hit a bottom right around the time gas …
Sonu Varghese
August 2, 2023
Stocks Don’t Like August, Now What?
“Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” President Dwight D. Eisenhower Another month and more strong gains. Make that five months in a row, the S&P 500 finished higher. The S&P 500 is now up close to 20% on the year, just like everyone predicted. 😉 We came into the year overweight stocks and remain …
Ryan Detrick
August 1, 2023
Talking About the Bull Market with Tom Lee
Sonu and I were honored to be joined by Tom Lee, Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, this week on the Facts vs Feelings podcast! I’ve been a fan of Tom for many years and you might know him for being one of the very few bulls coming into this …
Ryan Detrick
July 28, 2023
The Fed Still Believes in a Soft Landing. Here’s Why That’s Important.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the federal funds rates by 0.25% at their July meeting, taking rates to the 5.25 – 5.0% range — the highest in 22 years. This was widely expected. In fact, the Fed’s statement behind the decision was mostly unchanged relative to June, except for a subtle, but important change. Instead …
Sonu Varghese
July 27, 2023
6 Investing Principles for Long-Term Success
Barry Gilbert, Vice President, Asset Allocation Strategist This is my inaugural blog as a member of the Carson Group Investment Research Team. I am thrilled to be at Carson and to have the opportunity to work with such a great community of advisors. There will be a lot of data and charts to come in …
Carson Research
July 26, 2023