Investments
If You’re Worried About a Rising Unemployment Rate, Rest Easy for Now
Last month we were talking about a potential deterioration in the labor market, as the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. It was as low as 3.4% in the Spring. That increase was definitely something to worry about, as a rising unemployment rate usually signals that there’s more to come – which is the essence of …
Sonu Varghese
December 8, 2023
Some More Good News for Bulls
“Never bet on the end of the world. It never ends, and if it does, who will you settle the trade with?” -Art Cashin, Managing Director at UBS After one of the best months in history last month, the good news is we still see potentially bullish times coming. Here are a few things that …
Ryan Detrick
December 7, 2023
Things You Don’t See in A Recession
“There are no gains, without pains.” – Benjamin Franklin Incredibly, many strategists and economists continue to say we are headed for a bear market and a recession in ’24. That’s right, it is Outlook season and some of the forecasts for ’24 have been quite dour. The good news is we’ve been hearing this from …
Ryan Detrick
December 6, 2023
Things You Don’t See in a Recession Part 2
Recessions are periods of economic contraction that typically last for several months or longer. With all the news about a possible recession for 2024, will we actually experience one? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore some of the indicators …
Ryan Detrick
December 6, 2023
10 Charts Showing Why We’re Not Yet Worried About the Consumer
I was recently asked whether I was worried about rising debt delinquencies. It is true that transitions into serious delinquencies (90+ days of late payments, capturing borrowers who have missed three or more payments) have been rising for auto loans and credit cards. For auto loans, transitions to serious delinquencies are at 5.8% as of …
Sonu Varghese
December 5, 2023
Building Strength: Trends Supporting This Strong Housing Market
The ‘American Dream’ of home ownership remains alive and well. Despite significant increases in mortgage rates in recent years and fears the housing market would tumble as a result, there are structural factors that may have played a crucial role in the resiliency of this housing market. We point to demographics and work from home …
Blake Anderson
December 4, 2023
The Monetary Policy Pivot Is Coming, And That’s Good for Stocks
All year we’ve been in the camp that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates, and we have positioned our portfolios accordingly – overweighting cash over longer-term bonds. This was based on our view that there would be no recession in 2023, even as inflation moves lower and unemployment remains low. This was in …
Sonu Varghese
December 1, 2023
Let’s Talk About Santa and December
“It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.” -Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman at Berkshire Hathaway Before we get into today’s blog, I wanted to take a second and give thanks to Charlie Munger, who passed away Tuesday, and all he has done to make this world a better place. There …
Ryan Detrick
November 30, 2023
Valuation Outlook: Where Are the Opportunities?
While in the short run any number of variables can and do move stock prices, over the long run, corporate earnings drive returns. The price investors pay for that stream of earnings is equally as important. While value is generally not a reliable short-term timing indicator, valuations can inform secular viewpoints toward various asset classes. …
Grant Engelbart
November 29, 2023
Welcome to the Year End Rally
The stock market is often a reflection of the economy, the consumer, and the sentiment of the investors. Based on the increases we’ve seen over the past four weeks, what can we expect for the end of the year? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global …
Ryan Detrick
November 29, 2023
Why We Think Higher Rates Didn’t Crush the Economy
“The simplest solution is almost always the best.” -William of Ockham, better known as Occam’s Razor One year ago, right now nearly all the economists on tv told us a recession was coming. Who can forget this headline from last October? In many cases it wasn’t a question of ‘if’, but how bad it would …
Ryan Detrick
November 28, 2023
Bridging the Gap: Personalizing AI
In the rapidly evolving landscape of artificial intelligence, this year’s advancements mark a significant shift towards a more personal and accessible AI experience for everyday individuals. Unlike the technological strides of the past two decades, contemporary AI has seamlessly integrated into the fabric of our daily lives. It is already empowering people to accomplish mundane …
Blake Anderson
November 27, 2023