What a first half it has been, with stocks having one of their best starts to a year ever and the economy defying many by avoiding the most broadcast recession of all-time.
We came into this year saying good things could happen and it wasn’t very well received, as nearly everyone on tv was talking recession and new bear market lows. Our call was no recession and stocks could gain between 12-15% and maybe hit new all-time highs with some good news, with bonds trailing stocks, but gaining between 4-5%. In fact, we’ve been overweight stocks in our Carson House Views since December and we added a little exposure back in March during the regional bank crisis.
Here’s what we said six months ago. Again, we might have been one of the most optimistic views out there, as Bloomberg said the median strategist had a negative return in ’23 forecasted.
One of the main reasons we expected better times was the over-the-top negative sentiment amid what we considered a strong economic backdrop. We said the consumer was in a good spot and could help the economy avoid a recession, while other areas like manufacturing and housing finally bottomed later this year and became tailwinds. Well, without giving too much away, we still see a strong consumer for the rest of this year, with manufacturing trying to bottom and housing clearly bottoming and turning higher.
If you’ve been reading this blog for the past few months, then you probably know we remain overweight stocks, underweight bonds, and expect participation to widen out. Yes, technology and communications had a great run to start ’23, but we are now looking for things to broaden out with cyclicals and small/midcaps doing well the rest of ’23.
For our exact calls for stocks and bonds, you’ll have to wait until Tuesday, July 11 when our Midyear Outlook officially drops. Besides the white paper, we’ll have blogs, videos, podcasts, a PowerPoint presentation, and a special live webinar all to help promote and share this exciting time from the Carson Investment Research team.
And if you’d like to sign up to see Sonu and I discuss our Midyear Outlook live, you can sign up here. All the fun starts at 2pm ET on Wednesday, July 12.