“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Vladimir Lenin
Last week was Carson’s Excell conference down in Orlando and it was a ton of fun, but a little exhausting as well. I’m glad it is over, but looking back it was such a fun and productive week for our Investment Research team.
From interviewing Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s Founder and CEO, in front of nearly 1,000 people on Facts vs Feelings 100th episode, to various breakouts from members of our team, to doing random Spaces with some of the big names guests in attendance, to just hanging out with our Carson Partners to learn more about what we can do to help them build their businesses and help their clients, it was a great week in the Sunshine State.
A funny thing happened while we were all together though, stocks soared! You can’t make this up, as the S&P 500 was up more than 4% for the best week since last November, but all five days were higher as well on the week. I’m calling this a perfect week and the bottom line is they tend to happen in bullish trends. I found 29 other times all five days of the week where higher, all five days were above the 200-day moving average, and on Friday it was less than 3% from an all-time high. In other words, a similar situation to right now. Well, a year later stocks were higher more than 86% of the time and up a median of 17.0%, not bad, not bad.
The second thing that happened last week that I think you should know about is stocks rebounded from their worst week of the year to have their best week of the year, talk about an Excell bounce! We have no clue if these will still be the best and worst weeks of the year at the end of the year, but we do know we saw a 4% or greater weekly decline, only to turn into a 4% or more weekly bounce the next week. Would you believe the past 11 times we saw that stocks were higher a year later by the tune of up 23.7% on average? Yep, it is true and it just happened. Going out further, I found 22 times this happened since 1950 and stocks were higher a year later 18 times (81.8%) and up an average of 16.4% and a median of 18.8%. 💪
Lastly, on Wednesday last week, S&P 500 was down 1.6% about 90 minutes into trading over worries about inflation and the Debate the night before, but by the end of the day stocks were up more than 1%. This was a huge reversal and usually days like this led to higher prices in the future, in fact, the last time we saw anything like this was the exact lows of the bear market from 2022 back in October 2022. Up a median of more than 9% six months later and more than 16% a year later says it all, as this is another feather in the cap for the bulls.
Last week was a lot of fun for Carson, but also for the bulls. It might not always be this way, especially as we are entering one of the more seasonally weak times the last two weeks of September (below) and into October of an election year, but any near-term weakness will likely be fairly contained and these three stats I’ve mentioned here continue to support this bull market is alive and well.
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For more content by Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist click here.
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