Barry Gilbert
Leading Indicators Catch Up With the Economy
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) gained month over month in February after 23 consecutive months of declines. Carson Investment Research’s proprietary leading indicator, which never signaled recession, continues to point to near-trend growth, versus the Conference Board’s forecast of slowing growth. The end of extended Conference Board LEI declines has generally been a …
Barry Gilbert
March 27, 2024
Have Stock Returns Been Too Good? The Strategic Perspective
We often get asked about whether stock returns have been just too good in the near term and have formed a speculative bubble. Our Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick debunked that idea in his blog yesterday. But occasionally we also get asked whether returns have been too good over the longer term. We take a …
Barry Gilbert
March 20, 2024
First Quarter Returns Aiming for the Sweet Spot
Today is the Ides of March, as March 15 is called. Known best for the day on which Julius Caeser was assassinated, it was also celebrated in pagan antiquity as the Feast of Anna Perenna, the goddess of the Wheel of the Year, and marked the end of the New Year festivities. March was the …
Barry Gilbert
March 15, 2024
The 2024 Election – Tale of the Tape
The dust has settled on Super Tuesday, and it looks like the parties have chosen their champions for the November general election. Outside of American Samoa, Vermont, and Washington DC, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have won every state for their respective parties. Barring something unusual, the 2024 election will be a …
Barry Gilbert
March 7, 2024
NVIDIA’s Blockbuster Earnings All About the Supply/Demand Imbalances for AI
“Oh NVIDIA, oh NVIDIA, say have you met NVIDIA? NVIDIA the AI chip maker?” -Groucho Marx (adapted) In yesterday’s blog by my colleague Jake Bleicher we took a look at chipmaker NVIDIA’s latest earnings report and the wide range of places where artificial intelligence (AI) is being deployed. Today we take another look and some …
Barry Gilbert
February 23, 2024
Five Basic Questions on Investing in Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence (AI) had two big moments in the popular imagination over the last two years: the extremely successful rollout of ChatGPT in late 2022 and chipmaker Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings report in May 2023. While these moments captured the public imagination, AI has already been playing an important role for many businesses and in our …
Barry Gilbert
February 15, 2024
Is Momentum Losing Its Mojo?
At Carson Investment Research, one of our investment pillars is to understand information about market supply and demand dynamics by looking at price action, volume, measures of aggregate breadth, sentiment, and similar data. That’s a fancy way of saying we look at “technicals,” which includes both the collective wisdom of some skilled practitioners and, from …
Barry Gilbert
February 6, 2024
Closely Watched Leading Indicators Are Turning, and That May Be Good For Markets
Closely Watched Leading Indicators Are Turning, and That May Be Good For Markets At Carson Investment Research, we have a proprietary set of leading indicators for countries and regions that inform our process and kept us clear of near universal recession calls at the end of 2022. (For the most recent update of our indicators, …
Barry Gilbert
January 25, 2024
BONDS ARE BACK, BUT STOCKS LOOK BETTER
Carson Investment Research just released our 2024 Market Outlook, “Seeing Eye to Eye”. While our view on the economy leads us to favor stocks over bonds in 2024, we believe that bonds are poised to return to their traditional roles as a portfolio stabilizer and source of diversification. One traditional role they’re already playing again: …
Barry Gilbert
January 18, 2024
4 Takeaways from 2023 Market Superlatives
2023 is now in the books. It was a year that no-one expected, but to the upside, which is the way we would all have it. The anticipated recession that didn’t come was overpriced into the market with 2022’s S&P 500 decline of 18%. Those declines helped the index power ahead to a 26.3% gain …
Barry Gilbert
January 2, 2024