Investments
The Breakeven Yield Change for the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index Is Almost 5x Higher Than in 2020
The sell-off in bonds from August 6, 2020 to October 24, 2022 was dramatic and difficult. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) is actually up 3.6% off of the October 2022 lows despite additional volatility this year. We are often asked when it’s safe to add bond duration (the sensitivity of a bond or …
Barry Gilbert
November 10, 2023
Why We Think The Bull Market Should Continue In 2024
2023 has been a year unlike any other, then again, all years are unlike other years. From everyone expecting a recession and continuation of the bear market at the start of the year, to the regional banking crisis in March, to one of the best first halves to a year for stocks ever, to a …
Ryan Detrick
November 9, 2023
‘Tis the Season for Mutual Fund Capital Gains!
It is that wonderful time of year again where mutual fund capital gain distributions are compared to lumps of coal in investor’s stockings. A rebounding stock market and another year of outflows from actively managed mutual funds means capital gains distributions for remaining shareholders. Traditional mutual funds face this problem due to the fact that …
Grant Engelbart
November 8, 2023
Why Stocks Just Bottomed
A number of factors and causing the stock market to continue to experience high volatility, causing uncertainty for investors. With October’s correction, are there signs of a market bottom? A potential rally? In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Carsons’ Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese explain why …
Ryan Detrick
November 8, 2023
This Could Be a Potential Game-Changer for the Economy
Lost in all the consternation over a weak payroll report last week was the fact that we got good productivity data a couple of days before that. Labor productivity rose at an annualized pace of 4.9% in Q3. This is not entirely surprising because we already knew output surged in Q3, and hours worked didn’t …
Sonu Varghese
November 7, 2023
Under the Hood: Apple’s Resilience and a Tenacious Consumer
We have consistently emphasized this year that our House View – a strong consumer base powers a resilient economy – continues to resonate in both the broader stock market and economic indicators. As we sharpen our pencils, though, we’ve discerned shifts in consumer preferences. The consumer appears undeterred by inflated prices for everyday indulgences, such …
Blake Anderson
November 6, 2023
Why We Think the October Payroll Report Was Just What the Doctor Ordered for Markets and The Fed
The October payroll report was weaker than expected on several fronts: Monthly job growth came in at 150,000, below expectations for a 180,000 gain. The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.8% to 3.9% Average hourly earnings growth rose at an annualized pace of 2.5% in October, well below expectations for close to a 4% increase. …
Sonu Varghese
November 3, 2023
Stocks in a Correction and the Best Month of the Year Is Here
“If there were ironclad rules, we would all be following them.” -Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management Although we saw a late October bounce, the S&P 500 officially moved into correction territory last week. By definition, a correction is when stocks are down more than 10% from a recent peak, in this case, down more …
Ryan Detrick
November 2, 2023
What 2023’s Economic Irrational Sullenness Holds for 2024
2023 was a year many economists and economic models called for a recession only to see accelerating growth; a year when soft data surveys and hard data economic “facts” diverged, with hard data presenting a better picture; and a year when inflation fears remained elevated even as inflation fell. We do not want to minimize …
Barry Gilbert
November 1, 2023
Under the Hood: A Journey to the Clouds
The stocks known as the “Magnificent Seven” – Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla – have buoyed major indices throughout the year, fueled by the growing enthusiasm surrounding Artificial Intelligence (AI). As the third quarter earnings approached, all eyes were fixed on this elite group due to the remarkable performance of their stocks …
Carson Group
October 30, 2023
The Energizer Bunny Economy and What Comes Next
You just can’t put this economy down. There are expectations and then there’s reality. Earlier this year, expectations were for a “mild recession” in the second half of 2023, and then that got revised to a more optimistic outlook as time went by (and data came through). On the eve of the third quarter GDP …
Sonu Varghese
October 27, 2023
10 Things You Might Not Know, but Should
“It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.” -Henry David Thoreau (writer) Here are a few things that caught my attention the past week or so. A few I’m guessing a lot of people don’t even know, but they should. Profit Margins Are Increasing One of the more obvious things we’ve …
Ryan Detrick
October 26, 2023