Investments
Here’s Why the Economy Has Defied Recession Forecasts
It’s not been a good couple of years for macro forecasters in general. First, they said inflation would be transitory, but it persisted longer than most people anticipated (including the Fed). The other big call was for a recession in 2023, which obviously hasn’t panned out. Granted, the year is not done yet, but safe …
Sonu Varghese
October 25, 2023
Stock Outlook Still Attractive Despite Higher Interest Rates
As bond yields have risen, stock valuations have grown more expensive relative to bonds. We do believe this reduces the equity risk premium, but it doesn’t erase it. Expected earnings growth rates remain largely consistent with history, providing a solid fundamental basis for stock gains if realized. Overall, we still expect stocks to earn a …
Barry Gilbert
October 24, 2023
Under The Hood: Early Takeaways from Third Quarter Earnings
JPMorgan marked the start of third quarter earnings and cast a surprisingly positive light on the market. The financial sector had been under a shadow, with concerns lingering that rising rates on deposits would pressure margins and that credit losses would increase. Despite the worries, the issues didn’t materialize, at least for the largest banks. …
Carson Group
October 23, 2023
Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon
A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. That’s a right, a recession was all but certain. Well, fast forward 12 months and not only did we not have a recession, but economic growth has accelerated over the past quarter and is showing strong momentum …
Sonu Varghese
October 20, 2023
Remembering the Crash of 1987
“It felt like the world was ending.” -Economist Chris Rupkey on the Crash of 1987. October is known for many things, with incredible market crashes likely being at the top of the list. The Crashes of 1929 and 1987 stand out for many investors and who could forget the selling and volatility of October 2008? …
Ryan Detrick
October 19, 2023
A Deeper Look at Two Sectors
Earlier this month, we addressed three key sectors to watch during this upcoming earnings season: Financials, Energy and Consumer Discretionary. Each of these three sectors are dealing with challenges (or tailwinds, in the case of Energy) of their own. But under the surface, we find that Communications Services and Technology may also come under scrutiny …
Carson Research
October 18, 2023
Value Versus Growth: A Different World View
Rising interest rates in response to ever-heightening inflation was a dominant theme driving stock market performance in 2022. Within that environment, value stocks enjoyed a strong relative performance advantage over growth stocks. This is similar to what played out during the 1970s, another period when value saw significant outperformance over growth. With interest rates remaining …
Mike Lawrence
October 17, 2023
Shaping America: A Weight Loss Phenomenon
O-O-O-Ozempic, you know the commercial. Weight loss drugs have enjoyed a stunning debut. Novo Nordisk, the Danish drugmaker, is now the largest company in Europe, thanks to the sensational success of Ozempic, also known as Wegovy. While the GLP-1 class of diabetes drugs has been around for years, it was recently proven to have potent …
Carson Group
October 16, 2023
Why We Believe the Inflation Report Was Better Than What the Headlines Suggest
Headline inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) ran hotter than expected in September, rising 0.4% over the month and 3.7% over the past year. The culprit was rising energy prices. Gas prices at the pump increased 2.1% in September, following on from the almost 11% gain in August. Long story short, inflation …
Sonu Varghese
October 13, 2023
The Bull Market Turns One
“There are no gains without pains.” – Benjamin Franklin Hard to believe it, but one year ago today the vicious bear market ended. I remember it well, as the bear market saw the S&P 500 down 25.5% from the early January lows at the close on October 12, 2022. The very next day we saw …
Ryan Detrick
October 12, 2023
4 Reasons We Believe That Israel’s War Against Hamas Won’t Be Market Moving and 2 Things That Could Change That
We have received several questions about the potential market impact of Hamas’ brutal terrorist attack on Israel, the Israeli response, and the on-going aftermath. Thinking about these kinds of issues is our job, but we are also well aware that these considerations are trivial compared to the events themselves and the lives they impact. Looking …
Barry Gilbert
October 11, 2023
Four Reasons We Believe Stocks Won’t Crash in October
“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” -Mark Twain October is known for many things, from sweaters, to leaves on the ground, to the World Series, to pumpkins, and yes, to market crashes. It …
Ryan Detrick
October 10, 2023