Investments
Markets to Be Thankful For
With many people on the road to visit family or preparing to host, we thought we would do a simple blog today on markets to be thankful for. We put a little wrinkle in it, though, by looking at how far different indexes are from their high and their low dating back to the start …
Barry Gilbert
November 22, 2023
Talking About the Sahm Rule and Unemployment with Claudia Sahm
The Sahm Rule is an indicator that detects recessions in real-time based on changes in the unemployment rate. This rule was proposed by Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist and a leading expert on macroeconomic policy. Today, we learn about the Sahm Rule and more! In this episode, Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick & …
Ryan Detrick
November 22, 2023
Six Reasons to Be Thankful
“We do the worst possible thing at the worst possible time because we are most certain that we are right just when we are most likely to be wrong.” -Jason Zweig, writer at the Wall Street Journal As we look to finish up 2023 on a strong note, there are many reasons to be …
Ryan Detrick
November 21, 2023
A Charged Future: The Opportunity for Utilities
In the world of finance, the utilities sector is often considered the most boring of all. With its regulated nature and slower earnings growth, it’s not exactly the most exciting place to invest. These companies, burdened by their capital-intensive nature, funnel most of their cash into infrastructure while sparing a portion for shareholders through dividends. …
Carson Group
November 20, 2023
Three Things Every Investor Should Know
“Did you hear the one about the statistician who put his feet in the oven and head in a bucket of water? When asked how he felt he replied, ‘on average, I feel pretty good.’” -Old statistics joke One of my favorite parts about my job is I get to travel all over the country …
Ryan Detrick
November 17, 2023
Earnings Growth Could Support 2024 Gains, But Pay More Attention to the Cycle
Forward earnings growth forecasts are a lagging indicator for markets. Truth be told, most data when reported is largely a lagging indicator for markets, since markets tend to be forward looking. Markets tend to respond to a combination of long-term fundamentals, which drive baseline expectations, surprises and shocks, and sentiment. However, it’s still very important …
Barry Gilbert
November 16, 2023
Our Leading Economic Index Still Points to “No Recession”
We publicly started releasing our proprietary leading economic index (LEI) in our 2023 Mid-Year Outlook, which we use to give us an early warning signal about economic turning points. We produce an LEI for the US and 29 other countries, each one custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs …
Sonu Varghese
November 15, 2023
Why the Fed is Done
With the recent inflation data, can we say that the Fed has stopped raising rates? How will this affect the economy if this is to happen? What’s next for the stock market for the remainder of the year? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro …
Ryan Detrick
November 15, 2023
Here’s Why We Think This Inflation Report Will Set Up Serious Rate Cut Expectations
The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was chockful of good news. Headline inflation was flat in October, below expectations for a 0.1% increase. The October “surprise” came on the back of lower gasoline prices, which fell 5%. But that counts, and even more so because it means households have more income – keeping consumption …
Sonu Varghese
November 14, 2023
Under the Hood: Q3 Earnings Wrap and a Glimpse Ahead
As the third quarter earnings season draws to a close, attention shifts to the outlook for the coming year. A prevalent theme across industries is a return to normalcy. The COVID pandemic wrought widespread disruption in supply chains and labor markets, coupled with enduring shifts in consumer preferences that have shaped multi-year trends. With more …
Carson Group
November 13, 2023
The Breakeven Yield Change for the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index Is Almost 5x Higher Than in 2020
The sell-off in bonds from August 6, 2020 to October 24, 2022 was dramatic and difficult. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) is actually up 3.6% off of the October 2022 lows despite additional volatility this year. We are often asked when it’s safe to add bond duration (the sensitivity of a bond or …
Barry Gilbert
November 10, 2023
Why We Think The Bull Market Should Continue In 2024
2023 has been a year unlike any other, then again, all years are unlike other years. From everyone expecting a recession and continuation of the bear market at the start of the year, to the regional banking crisis in March, to one of the best first halves to a year for stocks ever, to a …
Ryan Detrick
November 9, 2023