Investments
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. …
Ryan Detrick
June 8, 2023
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after …
Sonu Varghese
June 7, 2023
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are …
Ryan Detrick
June 6, 2023
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore? Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month. The economy created 339,000 jobs in …
Sonu Varghese
June 2, 2023
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure. Looking …
Ryan Detrick
June 1, 2023
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt. Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts. The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that …
Sonu Varghese
May 31, 2023
A Debt Ceiling Update and Our Conversation with PIMCO’s Libby Cantrill
My colleague, Ryan Detrick and I, talked with PIMCO’s Head of Public Policy, Libby Cantrill, about the debt ceiling earlier this week. Check out our latest episode of Carson Research’s Facts vs Feelings podcast. Libby is extremely busy these days talking about the debt ceiling and we were honored to have some time to chat …
Sonu Varghese
May 26, 2023
Why a Strong First 100 Days Is a Good Thing
“It’s not how you start the season, it’s how you finish.” -Albert Pujols, 11-time All Star professional baseball player Can you believe it, today is the 100th trading day of the year. In the face of mounting worries about the economy, Fed policy, stubborn inflation, an earnings recession, the manufacturing recession, the war in Ukraine, …
Ryan Detrick
May 25, 2023
Government Debt Has Exploded Higher. Should We Worry?
The fight over the debt ceiling in Washington D.C. has focused attention on the size of U.S. government debt. And it’s not pretty to look at. From the end of 2019 through the end of 2022, government debt has increased by a whopping 35% to $31.4 trillion. That translates to a dollar increase of $8.2 …
Sonu Varghese
May 24, 2023
Two More Bullish Pieces of Evidence
“No amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot.” -Mark Twain We been pointing out signs of an early cycle revival in the economy and many bullish signals that indeed suggest the upward trend in stocks since October is alive and well. Well, here’s a blog on two more things that recently triggered and both …
Ryan Detrick
May 23, 2023
The Leading Indicator That’s Pointing Away From a Recession
It’s hard to get away from continued recession calls, even as several data points suggest the opposite. For example: Employment: running strong Retail sales: rebounded in April Manufacturing: signs point to a turnaround, especially vehicle production Housing: a turnaround seems to be happening I want to focus on housing in this blog. Residential investment makes …
Sonu Varghese
May 19, 2023
The Future Is Bright
“No one will out care us.” Ron Carson at Partner Summit Last week was a great week for the Carson Group and our Investment Research team as we held our Spring Partner Summit in Omaha. This semi-annual event is a great chance for us to get together with our Advisors (we call them Partners) and …
Ryan Detrick
May 18, 2023