Investments
Why is Everyone Predicting a Recession?
Almost every outlook you open this season has forecasters predicting that 2023 will see a recession. In contrast, we here on the Carson Investment Research Team believe the economy can avoid a recession this year. Note that the recession calls are all forecasts and clearly do not reflect where the economy is right now. For …
Sonu Varghese
January 11, 2023
Silver Linings Playbook: M&A Edition
By Brett Carson, Director of Equity Research 2022 was a rough year for investors. Stocks had their worst performance in many years, and shareholders are left wondering what is next. However, amidst all the uncertainty with inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, supply chain bottlenecks, and volatile capital markets, there were important buyers that saw …
Carson Research
January 10, 2023
The Labor Market Remains Strong
The December payroll report was yet another upside surprise as far as employment data go. Monthly payrolls rose by 223,000, above expectations for a 200,000 gain. The unemployment rate was expected to remain at 3.7% but fell to 3.5% – tying for the lowest rate since the 1950s. This is not remotely indicative of an …
Sonu Varghese
January 6, 2023
China Emerges from zero-COVID: What’s Next?
Happy new year! We’ve officially turned the page to 2023 and hope you and yours had a wonderful holiday season. As we closed out 2022, there were numerous major news topics, but one that picked up steam towards the year’s end was China’s assumed reopening after nearly three years of heavy restrictions. There were nationwide …
Carson Research
January 5, 2023
Average Isn’t So Average When It Comes To Investing
“There was a statistician, and he stuck his head in a bucket of ice and feet in the oven. They asked him how he felt, and he replied, ‘about average.’” Old statistics joke. First, I wish everyone a happy 2023 and hope you had a great holiday season with family and friends! I love using …
Ryan Detrick
January 4, 2023
Let’s Look at Stocks Down Two Years in A Row
As bad as 2022 has been for investors, there is a silver lining: back-to-back declines in the S&P 500 are rarer than you may think. If you go all the way back to 1950, the only times that stocks fell in back-to-back years were during the vicious recession of 1973/1974 and then three years in …
Ryan Detrick
December 30, 2022
What Happens When Everyone Agrees That Stocks Will Fall?
“It’s not what you look at that matters; it’s what you see.” Henry David Thoreau I’ve done this for more than two decades, and I have to say, the general consensus remains that the first half of next year will be rough for stocks, while the second half of the year should be better. But …
Ryan Detrick
December 29, 2022
Phil Pearlman: Mental Health and Investing
We had a special episode in our latest Facts vs. Feelings podcast, as Sonu and I were joined by the CEO of Pearl Institute, Phil Pearlman, whose goal is to help advisors unlock their freedom through health planning and performance training. Given that everyone will be setting those resolutions soon, we couldn’t think of anyone …
Ryan Detrick
December 28, 2022
What You Need to Know About the Bank of Japan’s (Unexpected) Monetary Policy Change
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) made a surprise decision on Tuesday to widen the allowed trading band for 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) from ~25 to ~50 basis points. This move signals a shift in the BOJ’s approach to monetary policy and inflation and is likely to be sustained by the incoming governor of the …
Sonu Varghese
December 23, 2022
Is it Finally Time for The Santa Claus Rally? 🎅🎄🔔
“If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” —Yale Hirsh One of the little-known facts about the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) is that it isn’t the entire month of December but is actually only seven days. Discovered in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac (carried on …
Ryan Detrick
December 22, 2022
Don’t Lose Faith Yet
Stocks have sold off hard after the Fed took a more hawkish-than-expected tone last week, which now has stocks looking at one of their worst December returns ever. The good news is that there is still time, and one of the most bullish times of the year is right around the corner. We will discuss …
Ryan Detrick
December 21, 2022
Silver Linings Playbook – Homebuilders Edition
The recent headlines in the housing market are downright ugly. Mortgage rates have more than doubled in 2022 and sit near 20-year highs, existing home sales continue the longest streak of declines on record, and last week the CEO of a luxury home furnishings retailer compared this housing market to 2008/2009, even using the “C” …
Carson Research
December 20, 2022