Investments
Silver Linings Playbook – Homebuilders Edition
The recent headlines in the housing market are downright ugly. Mortgage rates have more than doubled in 2022 and sit near 20-year highs, existing home sales continue the longest streak of declines on record, and last week the CEO of a luxury home furnishings retailer compared this housing market to 2008/2009, even using the “C” …
Carson Research
December 20, 2022
5 Things To Know About Recessions And Bear Markets
“I am an optimist because I don’t see the point in being anything else.” Abraham Lincoln With all the talk about a pending recession and stocks in a bear market, today, I wanted to share some more thoughts and stats on recessions and bear markets. First things first, we do not currently anticipate a recession …
Ryan Detrick
December 16, 2022
The Monetary Policy Conversation is Going to Shift in 2023
First, the good news – The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points (bps) to the 4.25-4.50% range – a step down from the 75 bps rate hike pace they went with at the last four meetings. This was expected, but it’s always good to see confirmation. They also said that …
Sonu Varghese
December 15, 2022
The Inflation Report We’ve Been Waiting For
Inflation has been top of investors’ minds this year, especially since it’s resulted in the most aggressive rate hike cycle in four decades. Since the beginning of the year, many people (including me) thought it would be simply a matter of time before inflation starts heading back to earth. But it was not to be. …
Sonu Varghese
December 14, 2022
Is Anyone Bullish? 🐂
“The future ain’t what it used to be.” Yogi Berra We’ve noticed a recent trend: nearly no one is looking for stocks to do much in 2023. As Yogi said many years ago, the future ain’t looking too good. The general consensus is that the first half of next year could be very rough, with …
Ryan Detrick
December 13, 2022
More Good News on the Inflation Front: Falling Gas Prices ⛽️
Inflation has been on everyone’s mind this year, whether it’s households, investors, and the Federal Reserve. Surging inflation has weighed on consumer sentiment, though arguably, this is primarily because of gas prices. And as gas prices fell after the summer, consumer confidence started moving higher once again (I wrote about this back in September). We …
Sonu Varghese
December 9, 2022
More Positive Signs for Inflation 🤞 👍 🏷
There are many reasons stocks and bonds have had a rough year so far in 2022, and right at the top is the huge spike in inflation this year. With the latest ‘most important economic event of our lifetime’, aka the latest CPI data coming out on Tuesday, today we’ll look at some continued better …
Ryan Detrick
December 8, 2022
Why the dollar matters 💵❓
A big story this year has been the US dollar, which has surged. The chart below shows the sharp rise of the ICE US dollar index, which measures changes in the US dollar against a basket of other currencies, including the euro, yen, British pound, and the Canadian dollar. However, it pulled back by just …
Sonu Varghese
December 7, 2022
When does the Santa Claus Rally Start? 🎅 ⏰
As we noted on the blog last week, December is historically a strong month for stocks, and we don’t expect 2022 to be any different. It is historically the third-best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 (April and November are stronger) and third-best during a midterm year (with October and November better). Here are …
Ryan Detrick
December 6, 2022
Don’t Count This Economy Out
The big headline for the November payroll report was that 263,000 jobs were created last month, well above expectations for a gain of 200,000. Job growth has slowed since the beginning of the year, but make no mistake, this is still a very strong pace of job growth. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted in …
Sonu Varghese
December 2, 2022
Five Good Signs for The Bulls In 2023
Can you believe it? We made it to December! As we noted yesterday, we wouldn’t be surprised if we finished this year with some more green, but today we’ll look into the future and what could be in store in 2023. First things first, let’s start with something simple. Stocks will likely be lower this …
Ryan Detrick
December 1, 2022
Will Santa Bring Jolly or Coal to Investors This December? 🎅🎄🪨
Can you believe it? We’ve made it to the last month of the year! I don’t know about you all, but I’ll be pretty happy to wish 2022 goodbye as soon as possible. But the good news is that we continue to think the mid-October lows were the lows from the bear market, and continued …
Ryan Detrick
November 30, 2022