Sonu Varghese
What’s Behind the Bond Market Rout?
Looking at the equity market hitting all-time highs, you could be forgiven for thinking all is well. But you don’t have to look too far to see where there’s pain, by way of the bond market. We’ve been talking about an inflationary growth regime since the start of the year, and equities doing well while …
Sonu Varghese
May 19, 2026
They’re Running It Hot, And We’re Still Riding the Wave
In our 2026 Outlook, we wrote about being in an inflationary growth environment and riding the wave of AI-related investment. Here we are six months later, and things have played out almost exactly as that. Of course, we didn’t predict the Middle East crisis and the energy price shock that followed, but inflation was a …
Sonu Varghese
May 15, 2026
Inflation’s Elevated No Matter How You Slice It in 10 Charts
The inflation data doesn’t look good, no matter how you slice it. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.64% in July (equivalent to 8% annualized rate), with the three-month annualized pace running at 7.3%. CPI is now up 3.8% over the past year, the highest reading since May 2023. The big driver here is …
Sonu Varghese
May 13, 2026
Stable Jobs + Hot Inflation + No Hikes = Bullish Equities
Take the labor market off your checklist for potential downside risks. We’ve been in the camp for a few months now that the labor market is healthier than noisy headline payrolls suggest. The April payroll data bears that out, pointing to a labor market that is no longer the downside risk it was. For the …
Sonu Varghese
May 8, 2026
The Labor Market Is Holding Up, But Inflation Is the Real Story
We’ve gotten a flurry of economic data over the past week, covering the labor market (JOLTS, the Employment Cost Index, ISM employment sub-indexes), personal income, and the broader pulse of the economy via the ISM Manufacturing and Services surveys. Layered on top of that, the big tech hyperscalers all reported earnings. While a lot, the …
Sonu Varghese
May 6, 2026
The AI Wave Continues, and It’s a Big One – 10 Charts Showing the Impact
We discussed the artificial intelligence (AI) wave in our 2026 Outlook and said we believed the best approach for investors was to ride it, using an equity overweight and broad diversified exposure. Five months later, that picture hasn’t changed—if anything, it’s only strengthened. AI continues to have a big impact on the economy. When I …
Sonu Varghese
May 1, 2026
Kevin Warsh as the Next Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh sat before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday for the start of his confirmation hearings as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. He sidestepped most of the political gotchas, reiterated his commitment to Fed independence, and outlined what amounts to a reform agenda: replacing the Fed’s inflation models, shrinking the balance sheet, …
Sonu Varghese
April 23, 2026
There’s No Puzzle as to Why Stocks Are at All-Time Highs
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs last week, and as our friend Sam Ro wrote on his substack (T’ker), this isn’t sitting well with many people. There’s also a steady stream of commentary along the lines of “this doesn’t make sense” and “risk assets are detached from reality.” Or that markets are …
Sonu Varghese
April 22, 2026
Consumer Sentiment Sinks as Inflation Outruns Wages
Consumer sentiment has collapsed irrespective of which metric you look at. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index just crashed to the lowest level in the survey’s history – even below what we saw during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008-2009, Covid in April-May 2020, and even the stagflationary 1970s. Surely things …
Sonu Varghese
April 17, 2026
We Have a Serious Inflation Problem (Duh!)
It shouldn’t be a surprise that the Middle East crisis has sent oil prices soaring, with the impact immediately felt on gasoline and diesel prices. We just got our first batch of inflation data that incorporates this, with the headline consumer price index (CPI) rising 0.9% in March (equivalent to an 11% annualized pace). The …
Sonu Varghese
April 10, 2026