Articles authored by Sonu Varghese

Another month, another slew of economic data that not only shows that the economy is resilient, but it may in fact be accelerating. Here’s a quick recap. Retail sales and food services rose 0.7% in July. One month may be noisy, but even if you take a 3-month average, retail sales rose 7% at an …

Consumer credit card has recently been in the news after it hit a record $1 trillion. However, Ryan walked us through several reasons why this eye-popping number is not that concerning. On the business side, rising bankruptcies have also been making headlines month after month, as chapter 11 filings this year exceed what we saw …

Inflation has been top of mind for investors over the past year and a half, both from the perspective of what that means for the economy as well as monetary policy. So, the latest release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks a basket of goods and services purchased by households, looms large every …

We came into 2023 with a view that stocks would rebound quite strongly, and the economy would be able to avoid a recession. As a result, we were overweight stocks over bonds in our tactical portfolios. We continue to maintain this overweight, since we believe equities could see even more gains before the end of …

The economy created 187,000 jobs in July, slightly softer than the 200,000 that economists expected. The last couple of months were revised lower, and so it’s always helpful to take a 3-month average, which is now running at 218,000. That’s stronger than the pre-pandemic average of 183,000. In short, job growth remains strong. You will …

Consumer confidence has been rising since last summer, and over the last couple of months, it has jumped even more. Both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board’s measures of consumer confidence have risen 22 points since last summer. A simple reason is… gas prices. Confidence hit a bottom right around the time gas …

The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the federal funds rates by 0.25% at their July meeting, taking rates to the 5.25 ­– 5.0% range — the highest in 22 years. This was widely expected. In fact, the Fed’s statement behind the decision was mostly unchanged relative to June, except for a subtle, but important change. Instead …

Ryan and I recently hosted Meb Faber of Cambria Investments on our Facts vs Feelings podcast. We covered a lot in that episode, but I want to pick out one thread in particular, i.e. dividends vs buybacks. As we discussed, dividends are one way corporation can return excess cash to shareholders. However, they can also …

We just got a bunch of data to round out the economic picture in the second quarter (Q2). Long story short: Not only do we see no sign of recession, but it also doesn’t even look like the economy is looking for a “landing” at this point. I realize this could change, but so far …

At the beginning of the year, we wrote in our 2023 Outlook that the US dollar was poised to weaken, creating tailwinds for Americans who invest in International stocks and S&P 500 earnings. We reiterated that this is starting to happen in our Mid-Year Outlook, “Edging Closer to Normal.” The chart below shows the recent …