Investments
What Happens If The US Attacks Iran?
“Stop worrying about the world ending today. It’s already tomorrow in Australia.” – Charles Schulz, cartoonist and creator of “Peanuts.” The S&P 500 is less than 2% away from new all-time highs, yet worries and concerns remain top of mind. Clearly, the impact of AI has worried many investors, with software, trucking, and financial services …
Ryan Detrick
February 25, 2026
AI Showed Up In A Big Way In 2025 GDP Data
On the face of it, headline fourth quarter (Q4) GDP growth disappointed. The economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.4%, after adjusting for inflation (“real” GDP growth), whereas economists were expecting double that number. A big driver of the underwhelming number was a big pullback in federal government spending, which pulled real GDP growth …
Sonu Varghese
February 24, 2026
Charts of the Week: Feb. 16-20
Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week. This week’s charts focus on the recent Supreme Court decision on Tariffs, rates, a tale of 2 markets, and a little bit of macro data! We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, click here: Charts of the …
Carson Research
February 23, 2026
The Tariffs Have Been Struck Down. What Next?
The Supreme Court today struck down the use of IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) as a valid legal basis for many of the Trump administration tariffs in a 6-3 decision written by Chief Justice John Roberts with Justices Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh dissenting. It’s a complicated 170-page decision with concurrences, partial concurrences, and multiple …
Sonu Varghese
February 20, 2026
On the Other Hand
“If it is obvious, then it is obviously wrong.” Joseph Granville I’ve noticed you can tell any story you want with a lot of the recent data. Today I wanted to share what I’ve found interesting, so you too can tell any story you want! Earnings This earnings season has been very impressive, with earnings …
Ryan Detrick
February 19, 2026
The Dirty Dozen Equity Drawdowns Versus the Current Market
In our 2026 Outlook: Riding the Wave, we took a look at the average return for the S&P 500 (and the likelihood of a positive year) for all years versus only years when the economy is growing (avoids a recession), consistent with our base case for 2026. Not surprisingly, when you take recessions off the …
Barry Gilbert
February 18, 2026
Charts of the Week: Feb. 9-13
Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week. This week’s charts focus on the historic AI Capex cycle, crypto, and a little bit of macro data! On top of this, we end with a chart about Mondays… We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday (Even though today is Tuesday!). To view this …
Carson Research
February 17, 2026
Software’s Selloff
By Blake Anderson, CFA®, Associate Portfolio Manager 2026’s ‘Tech Wreck’ continues as investors extend their selloff in technology-related stocks. Investors have shied away from this industry as concerns about AI-fueled disruption to their core business models have risen. For investors with exposure to software, it may be informative to assess whether current prices signal valuation …
Blake Anderson
February 17, 2026
Spurious Correlations: Year of the Horse, Nick Cage Movies, and Friday the 13th
“Spurious: Outwardly similar or corresponding to something without having its genuine qualities.” Merriam-Webster Dictionary This will be a more fun blog, as I’ve always been fascinated by spurious correlations, or things that might go up and down together, but one doesn’t cause the other to move with it. Sometimes the connection is random; sometimes there’s …
Ryan Detrick
February 13, 2026
Job Report: Nevermind the Revisions, Focus on the Good News Here and Now
The January payroll report was widely anticipated because it was the first “clean” report after the messy post-shutdown reports from November and December, which were also delayed. We also got annual benchmark revisions to prior years’ data (which impacted data from 2021 through March 2025). The Bureau of Labor Statistics also made a methodological change …
Sonu Varghese
February 12, 2026
Is it Still (Crypto) Winter?
Like any good Midwesterner, the weather is top of mind most of the time, especially in the depths of winter. Like the stock market, there is no such thing as experiencing average temperature – just a combination of above-average and below-average. Right now, many of us are experiencing above-average temperatures and likely our first ‘false …
Grant Engelbart
February 11, 2026
Big Tech Capex Plans Are Ballooning – Is That Good or Bad?
When we wrote our 2026 Outlook: Riding The Wave, one thing we had in mind was surfing the artificial intelligence (AI) wave, not necessarily through immediate productivity gains or direct AI corporate profits, but through the massive infrastructure buildout it required (which does support broad corporate profits). As we noted then, this is a big …
Sonu Varghese
February 10, 2026