Investments
Is Momentum Losing Its Mojo?
At Carson Investment Research, one of our investment pillars is to understand information about market supply and demand dynamics by looking at price action, volume, measures of aggregate breadth, sentiment, and similar data. That’s a fancy way of saying we look at “technicals,” which includes both the collective wisdom of some skilled practitioners and, from …
Barry Gilbert
February 6, 2024
AI, Advertising, and Cash Flow: Alphabet’s Trifecta for Success
Shares of Alphabet fell from near all-time highs after the company reported fourth quarter earnings. The results were quite good, revenue growth accelerated at the fastest pace in six quarters and profitability was above expectations. However, management noted capital spending would be “notably larger” in 2024 and failed to give meaningful detail about reducing its …
Carson Group
February 5, 2024
Earnings Update from the World’s Most Valuable Company: Microsoft
Cloud performance took center stage, delivering solid 28% growth, consistent with the previous quarter. While some may view this as a minor letdown, the growth suggests that Microsoft continues to win share from the market leader, Amazon’s AWS. For long-term investors, success in the cloud extends beyond the tens-of-billions of dollars in profits; it’s about …
Carson Group
February 5, 2024
Ignore the Doomers…This Is a Strong Economy!
It’s not like we needed a lot more proof that the economy is strong. If you listen to the doomsayers, it always seems like the economy is hanging on the edge of a precipice. Never mind the latest GDP report card, which showed the economy grew 3.1% in inflation-adjusted terms in 2023. Of course, it’s …
Sonu Varghese
February 2, 2024
As Goes January, So Goes the Year? The Bulls Hope So.
An effect widely known as the January Barometer looks at how January does and what it may mean for the next 11 months. It is known by the saying, ‘So goes January, goes the year’ in the media. The late Yale Hirsch of Almanac Trader 1972 discovered this indicator. Today the Almanac is carried on …
Ryan Detrick
February 1, 2024
Taylor Swift Isn’t the Only One Feeling Good, More Americans Are Too
Consumer confidence has been rising recently. Maybe it’s Taylor Swift, and her weekly Sunday appearances. Or maybe it’s rising stock prices, rising home prices, and falling gas prices. Ultimately, perhaps the best signal to draw from rising confidence is that the labor market is strong. Keep in mind that the close to 70% of the …
Sonu Varghese
January 31, 2024
Outlook ’24: The Bull Market for Stocks Should Continue in 2024
2023 was been a year unlike any other. It had its share of unpredictable shocks, including the regional banking crisis in March and the terrible war in the Middle East. But it was also a year in which the equity markets and many industry strategists didn’t seem to be seeing eye to eye. Everyone expected …
Ryan Detrick
January 31, 2024
Unpacking a Mega Week
The stock market has been on a remarkable run, reaching new highs and defying expectations. But what are the drivers behind this rally, and what are the risks ahead? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze recent market trends, including …
Ryan Detrick
January 31, 2024
Do Stocks Want the 49ers or Chiefs to Win?
“Baseball is 90% mental, the other half physical.” -Yogi Berra First things first, don’t ever invest based on who wins the Super Bowl. Or what color #87 Taylor Swift will wear at the big game, or the coin toss, or how bad the refs will be. With that out of the way, it is Super …
Ryan Detrick
January 30, 2024
Earnings Pulse: Netflix and Tesla
Netflix – Netflix delivered a jaw-dropping update with the addition of 13.12 million new subscribers in the fourth quarter. The company previously suggested subscriber additions would be similar to the third quarter where it added nearly 9 million new households. The company has been on a global campaign to crackdown on password sharing which clearly …
Carson Group
January 29, 2024
The US Economy: This Time Was Different, and That’s a Big Deal
We got a rollicking GDP report on Thursday, showing the economy expanded at an annual pace of 3.3% after adjusting for inflation. That was well above forecasts of 1.8%. Yet again, the economy continues to be underestimated – a topic we’ve discussed on these pages time and time again. By now we were supposed to …
Sonu Varghese
January 26, 2024
Closely Watched Leading Indicators Are Turning, and That May Be Good For Markets
Closely Watched Leading Indicators Are Turning, and That May Be Good For Markets At Carson Investment Research, we have a proprietary set of leading indicators for countries and regions that inform our process and kept us clear of near universal recession calls at the end of 2022. (For the most recent update of our indicators, …
Barry Gilbert
January 25, 2024