Investments
This Is Normal: Part 2
At the beginning of the year, we titled our 2023 Outlook “The Edge of Normal”, as we expected markets and the economy to normalize in 2023. What we saw as the year progressed confirmed that view, so much so that our Mid-Year Outlook was titled “Edging closer to Normal”. Normalization has now continued into August. …
Sonu Varghese
September 1, 2023
Busting 7 Common Myths
We’ve been hearing many of the same myths over and over, yet we don’t think they are the big worry that the media and many make them out to be. These are legitimate concerns and have many investors worried, but we think the chances of them becoming larger issues are smaller than many expect. We …
Ryan Detrick
August 31, 2023
This Is Normal
“Who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?” Groucho Marx Nearly right on cue, stocks have had a rough August. We noted at the start of the month that the odds were high for some type of seasonal weakness, coupled with many of the longtime bears suddenly changing their tunes. The good news is …
Ryan Detrick
August 30, 2023
Thinking About Risks to The Outlook
We started the year believing the economy would avoid a recession and that markets would rebound, and everything that’s happened since has mostly reinforced that view, which we outlined in our Mid-Year Outlook. At the same time, investing is about dealing with probabilities as opposed to thinking in terms of binary outcomes. Ryan and I …
Sonu Varghese
August 29, 2023
The Choreography of Business Cycles: An Unusual Dance
“Life is like dancing. If we have a big floor, many people will dance. Some will get angry when the rhythm changes. But life is changing all the time” – Miguel Angel Ruiz A “rolling recession,” as some have described the current economy, is like a dance of ever-changing business dynamics. It happens when a …
Carson Group
August 28, 2023
Nvidia’s Exceptional Q2 Earnings & Outlook Support Investor Optimism About (AI)
“AI is the most profound technology that humanity will ever develop and work on. [More profound] than fire or electricity or the internet.” – Sundar Pichai, Google CEO Nvidia’s much-anticipated second quarter earnings surged past lofty expectations by 30%, propelling shares to a new all-time high. The heartening aspect of the report for investors is …
Carson Group
August 25, 2023
Volatility Is Part of the Game
“The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing.” Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard With stocks up five months in a row, we’ve hit some weakness so far in August, which is fairly normal as we discussed in Stocks Don’t Like August, Now What? Here’s the truth, investors have been rather spoiled …
Ryan Detrick
August 24, 2023
The Real Message Behind “Missing the Best Market Days” Chart
Barry Gilbert, Vice President, Asset Allocation Strategist There is a commonly shared chart out there (with lots of slightly different variations) that has occasionally run into some criticism. The chart shows stock market returns if you missed the best market days each year. Carson’s version is below. The point of the chart is straightforward and …
Carson Research
August 23, 2023
Eight Questions About China
We’ve gotten a lot of questions on China, including what’s happening there and how it’ll impact the US, and potentially, financial markets. We’re going to tackle all of those in this blog. 1. What’s happening in China? The economy is in trouble. Retail sales are up just 2.5% year over year, well off the pre-pandemic …
Sonu Varghese
August 22, 2023
Markets Are Coming to Terms with the Fact That the Economy is Strong
Another month, another slew of economic data that not only shows that the economy is resilient, but it may in fact be accelerating. Here’s a quick recap. Retail sales and food services rose 0.7% in July. One month may be noisy, but even if you take a 3-month average, retail sales rose 7% at an …
Sonu Varghese
August 18, 2023
Now They Turn Bullish?
“When the facts change, I change my mind – what do you do, sir?” -John Maynard Keynes One of the main reasons we were overweight equities at the start of this year was because virtually no one else was, as we explained in mid-December in Is Anyone Bullish?. Sure, there were a few bulls, but …
Ryan Detrick
August 17, 2023
The Carson Investment Research Approach to Portfolio Management Part 1: Start Simply
I’ve looked at thousands of portfolios over my career, most of them made up of mutual funds and/or ETFs but sometimes with individual stocks and bonds thrown in or even making up the entire portfolio. One thing that has repeatedly struck me is how sometimes adding “more,” more positions, more asset types, more specialized pieces, …
Carson Research
August 16, 2023