Insights Investments

The February payroll report was an ugly one, and a bit of a mess. The economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, whereas forecasters projected a gain of 55,000.  We saw significant revisions for the last two months as well: December payrolls were revised down by 65,000, from +48,000 to -17,000. January payrolls were revised down …

A resounding, and sometimes frustrating, feature of markets is that leadership change is inevitable over any period of time studied. The “A.I. Trade” has been prevalent for the past couple of years, absent some blips here and there (DeepSeek, Liberation Day, etc). In some ways, the A.I. trade has started turning upon itself – previous …

If you haven’t read it already, in yesterday’s insightful blog, Carson’s Chief Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese provided an update on inflation expectations given the expanding (for now) conflict in the Middle East. For the basic takeaway, just look at the title: The Inflation Outlook Doesn’t Look Good. Now that’s not 2022 “doesn’t look good.” But …

Oil spikes. Gas jumps above $3. Inflation expectations shift in a matter of days. Suddenly the market isn’t debating disinflation or AI productivity. It’s asking whether we’re entering a new inflation shock. In Episode 177 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson …

War tends to be inflationary, period. Especially one in the Middle East that drives up oil prices. Since Friday, WTI crude prices have risen over 10% to $76/barrel, while Brent prices rose over 15% to $83/barrel. That doesn’t sound like a lot given the magnitude of hostilities in the region, but as Ryan wrote in …

Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week. This week’s charts focus on the current housing situation, inflation, macro data, and a great chart of how stocks do after major events! We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, click here: Charts of the Week: Feb. …

The Chinese word for ‘crisis’ has two symbols. One is ‘danger,’ and the other is ‘opportunity.’   On Saturday, the US and Israel struck Iran in a large-scale attack that included the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leadership. There are more questions than answers right now, but in the …

Last week, Citrini Research and Lotus Technology Management’s Alap Shah published a piece on AI that went viral, titled: “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” The piece is a thought experiment that highlighted some potential consequences of rapid AI development (even if not base case) that the conventional view might be missing. They wrote a memo …

By Blake Anderson, CFA®, Associate Portfolio Manager The Numbers Nvidia’s latest quarterly results exceeded both the company’s and investors’ expectations. The company posted quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion, which exceeded the $65.0 billion of revenue the company guided for. This $3.1 billion beat compared to their guidance marks the company’s largest-ever beat, exceeding last quarter’s …

“Stop worrying about the world ending today. It’s already tomorrow in Australia.” – Charles Schulz, cartoonist and creator of “Peanuts.” The S&P 500 is less than 2% away from new all-time highs, yet worries and concerns remain top of mind. Clearly, the impact of AI has worried many investors, with software, trucking, and financial services …

On the face of it, headline fourth quarter (Q4) GDP growth disappointed. The economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.4%, after adjusting for inflation (“real” GDP growth), whereas economists were expecting double that number. A big driver of the underwhelming number was a big pullback in federal government spending, which pulled real GDP growth …