Insights Investments

War tends to be inflationary, period. Especially one in the Middle East that drives up oil prices. Since Friday, WTI crude prices have risen over 10% to $76/barrel, while Brent prices rose over 15% to $83/barrel. That doesn’t sound like a lot given the magnitude of hostilities in the region, but as Ryan wrote in …

Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week. This week’s charts focus on the current housing situation, inflation, macro data, and a great chart of how stocks do after major events! We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, click here: Charts of the Week: Feb. …

The Chinese word for ‘crisis’ has two symbols. One is ‘danger,’ and the other is ‘opportunity.’   On Saturday, the US and Israel struck Iran in a large-scale attack that included the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leadership. There are more questions than answers right now, but in the …

Last week, Citrini Research and Lotus Technology Management’s Alap Shah published a piece on AI that went viral, titled: “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” The piece is a thought experiment that highlighted some potential consequences of rapid AI development (even if not base case) that the conventional view might be missing. They wrote a memo …

By Blake Anderson, CFA®, Associate Portfolio Manager The Numbers Nvidia’s latest quarterly results exceeded both the company’s and investors’ expectations. The company posted quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion, which exceeded the $65.0 billion of revenue the company guided for. This $3.1 billion beat compared to their guidance marks the company’s largest-ever beat, exceeding last quarter’s …

“Stop worrying about the world ending today. It’s already tomorrow in Australia.” – Charles Schulz, cartoonist and creator of “Peanuts.” The S&P 500 is less than 2% away from new all-time highs, yet worries and concerns remain top of mind. Clearly, the impact of AI has worried many investors, with software, trucking, and financial services …

On the face of it, headline fourth quarter (Q4) GDP growth disappointed. The economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.4%, after adjusting for inflation (“real” GDP growth), whereas economists were expecting double that number. A big driver of the underwhelming number was a big pullback in federal government spending, which pulled real GDP growth …

Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week. This week’s charts focus on the recent Supreme Court decision on Tariffs, rates, a tale of 2 markets, and a little bit of macro data! We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, click here: Charts of the …

The Supreme Court today struck down the use of IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) as a valid legal basis for many of the Trump administration tariffs in a 6-3 decision written by Chief Justice John Roberts with Justices Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh dissenting. It’s a complicated 170-page decision with concurrences, partial concurrences, and multiple …

“If it is obvious, then it is obviously wrong.” Joseph Granville I’ve noticed you can tell any story you want with a lot of the recent data. Today I wanted to share what I’ve found interesting, so you too can tell any story you want! Earnings This earnings season has been very impressive, with earnings …

In our 2026 Outlook: Riding the Wave, we took a look at the average return for the S&P 500 (and the likelihood of a positive year) for all years versus only years when the economy is growing (avoids a recession), consistent with our base case for 2026. Not surprisingly, when you take recessions off the …