Investments
The AI Capex Boom Is Boosting Activity and Prices
I’ve written a lot this year about an inflationary growth environment (strong economic activity alongside rising prices). We flagged this in our 2026 Outlook (and again in our Midyear Outlook), and the latest update of our proprietary Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US points to exactly that: strong nominal growth, boosted by inflation, which …
Sonu Varghese
October 6, 2026
Charts of the Week: Sept. 28 – Oct. 2
Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week This week’s charts cover inflation, the new jobs report, consumer confidence, and how this time period has been historically the strongest time in the 4-year presidential cycle. We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, click here: Charts …
Carson Research
October 5, 2026
Y(AI)2K
“COMPUTER DOOMSDAY?” was a Washington Post op-ed published in 1998. It details an estimated 60% chance of economic collapse caused by a failure in telephone, power and credit card systems, among others, due to the impending millennium bug. 28 years since publication, this op-ed would probably get a lot of clicks today if it were …
Blake Anderson
October 5, 2026
A Goldilocks Jobs Report for Markets
Headline payroll growth disappointed again in September, with the economy adding just 29,000 jobs, well below expectations for a 90,000 gain. We also got downward revisions: August was revised from +162,000 to +133,000, and July from +21,000 to -10,000. Put together, employment in July and August was 60,000 lower than previously reported, and the 3-month …
Sonu Varghese
October 2, 2026
Has Bitcoin Found a Base?
Previously the darling of headlines, Bitcoin and crypto have slid to the back of the room, as prices have failed to keep pace with equities. Bitcoin is down roughly 25% over the past year, but has recently seen a rebound that may have some legs – even in the face of macro headwinds. Prices fell …
Grant Engelbart
October 1, 2026
Inflation Remains a Problem, No Matter How You Slice and Dice The Data
We just got the latest read on the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index. This was an important release because the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its PCE methodology, most notably replacing market-price-sensitive measures for portfolio management services with an employment-based approach that better captures the underlying quantity of services provided …
Sonu Varghese
September 30, 2026
Rory Johnston Returns (FvF Ep. 207)
In Episode 207 of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, welcome back Rory Johnston, founder and CEO of Commodity Context, to make sense of an oil market that remains historically tight more than 200 days into the war with Iran. Rory explains why …
Ryan Detrick
September 30, 2026
Here Comes the Best Month in a Midterm Year
“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” Mark Twain The bears had their shot last week, as Treasury yields soared and at a bad time too, as the third week of September is …
Ryan Detrick
September 29, 2026
Charts of the Week: Sept. 21-25
Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week This week’s charts cover rates, mortgages, inflation, and how broader corporate America is doing. We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, click here: Charts of the Week: Sept. 21-25
Carson Research
September 28, 2026
Dr. Lisa Su Leads AMD to $1 Trillion
Last week, Advanced Micro Devices became a $1 trillion company for the first time and became the first company led by a Female CEO to cross this level. The achievement represents a remarkable milestone for one of the semiconductor industry’s greatest turnarounds. In an industry known for extreme competition, Dr. Lisa Su’s strategic decisions throughout …
Blake Anderson
September 28, 2026
Trying to Make Sense of the Housing Market
Should I buy a house, wait, or rent? I’m 23, and some version of that question comes up in almost every conversation I have with my friends. Some are waiting for mortgage rates to come down, and a couple are sure a crash is coming. All of us are wondering whether owning a home is …
Harry McDonald
September 25, 2026
Midterm Elections Don’t Matter a Whole Lot to Markets, but Here’s What Might
We are about six weeks from mid-term elections, and we’ve been getting questions about what the outcome might mean to markets. The short answer is typically not a lot. Political outcomes matter broadly, of course, but they tend to mean a lot less for markets than people think and even more so for mid-terms. In …
Barry Gilbert
September 24, 2026