Investments
Never Short a Dull Market
“The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it.” -Michelangelo There’s an old saying on Wall Street to never short a dull market. “Shorting the market” means you sell first (borrowing the shares), then hope to buy …
Ryan Detrick
September 22, 2026
Charts of the Week: Sept. 14-18
Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week This week’s charts cover the Fed, inflation, and everything to do with macro! We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, click here: Charts of the Week: Sept. 14-18
Carson Research
September 21, 2026
AI Angst
News stories have surfaced in the past few weeks that highlight fundamental reasons for the recent AI angst. Major AI research companies, including OpenAI and Anthropic, have begun to warn of unintended consequences from their frontier-leading experiments. And CEOs from major public companies have furthered the warning of risks. But the industry has also brought …
Blake Anderson
September 21, 2026
This Is Still A Dovish Fed
The Fed raised rates by 0.25%-points at their September meeting, taking the policy rate to 3.9% (3.75-4.0% range). That wasn’t a surprise, with Fed funds futures pricing in over a 90% probability of a hike on the eve of the meeting. But make no mistake: we’ve come a long way from early March, when the …
Sonu Varghese
September 18, 2026
A Dove In Hawk’s Clothing?
“At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.” Ben Bernanke, former Fed Chairman, on March 28, 2007 in a testimony to Congress The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) hiked interest rates for the first time in three years …
Ryan Detrick
September 17, 2026
Sheesh, Bonds!
Treasury yields, particularly on the long end, have shot higher recently and over really any period you measure. Yesterday, the 10-year closed at exactly 5.00%, with the 30-year (aka long bond) nearing 5.4%. The recent jump is pronounced even amongst the steady increase in rates this year. The bond market has effectively taken control as …
Grant Engelbart
September 16, 2026
Is AI Going to Kill All of Us? (FvF Ep. 205)
In Episode 205 of the Facts versus Feelings Podcast, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, tackle the AI story dominating headlines: a viral tweet from a former Anthropic employee warning about civilization-level risk, an OpenAI/Hugging Face sandbox incident where AI agents were caught cheating …
Ryan Detrick
September 16, 2026
Charts of the Week: September 8-11
Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week This week’s charts cover the Fed, Inflation measures, supply shocks, valuations, and the current state of the economy. We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, click here: Charts of the Week: Sept. 8-11
Carson Research
September 15, 2026
Sectors Wild Ride
2026 has been volatile in the markets, driven by a shifting combination of economic, fiscal, and geopolitical pressures that have repeatedly changed expectations for growth, inflation, and interest rates. Investors entered the year focused on persistent inflation, labor market conditions, and the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while tariffs and fiscal uncertainty added concerns …
Carson Research
September 15, 2026
The Inflation Data Is Going To Force the Fed To Act
Oil prices have surged over the last few weeks, taking nationwide average gasoline prices to $4.31/gallon, the highest ever for this time of year. Diesel has hit a record $6.20/gallon. That matters because diesel is what moves food and other goods across the country, allowing higher oil prices to seep into a broad array of …
Sonu Varghese
September 14, 2026
Apple’s First Event Under John Ternus
Apple’s annual product debut event ushered in a new era for the company. Mr. Tim Cook hosted the past 15 annual events as CEO, but Mr. John Ternus was promoted to CEO effective September 1st. Mr. Ternus inherits an impeccable execution track record that Mr. Cook built – zero major product recalls and the number …
Blake Anderson
September 11, 2026
Some Misconceptions of Investing Internationally
If you are a regular reader or follower of our team’s content, you likely know that we’ve spent a great deal of time over the past year and a half discussing not only the benefits of investing in overseas markets and the importance of diversification in portfolios today, but also our view that there are …
Shane Denton
September 10, 2026