Investments
The AI Buildout Needs a Lot of Money—¬Enter Debt (and Financial Engineering)
I’ve written a lot about how tech capex spending by the hyperscalers is set to run around 2.5-3% of GDP in 2026 and 2027. What’s striking is how fast the estimate keeps moving higher. Coming into this year, 2026 capex was projected at $515 billion. After Q2 earnings it’s $775 billion, and 2027 is above …
Sonu Varghese
August 19, 2026
Is the Consumer Tapped Out? (FvF Ep. 201)
In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, joins Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, live from Penn State as Ryan navigates college move-in day and a few very real headlines along the way. From there, they dive into the increasingly complex financing behind the AI boom, including NVIDIA’s role …
Ryan Detrick
August 19, 2026
Fiscal Deficits Are Exploding, and That’s a Problem
I’m not one to usually worry about government debt but I believe we have a problem, folks. Inflation’s elevated and AI needs a ton of capital to finance its buildout, both of which would normally raise the cost of capital, i.e. interest rates. But on top of that, we’re running unprecedented fiscal deficits. Via the …
Sonu Varghese
August 18, 2026
Charts of the Week: August 10-14
Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week This week’s charts cover the latest inflation numbers, the Fed, stats from this quarter’s earnings season, and how spenders of capital have finally caught up. We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, click here: Charts of the …
Carson Research
August 17, 2026
K-Shaped Consumer Stocks
Consumer discretionary stocks have seen a wide dispersion of returns this year. To me, part of the answer may be explained by a K-shape in business models, not necessarily the targeted demographics of each company. Many consumer discretionary stocks that have done well this year may be classified as on-demand pricing models, whereas many of …
Blake Anderson
August 17, 2026
The State of the American Consumer in 11 Charts (They’re Fine)
Every time we get a soft consumption print, concern rises that the consumer is tapped out. This time it’s retail sales, which fell 0.6% in July, while core retail sales (excluding autos and gasoline stations) fell 0.4%. But Amazon Prime Day shifted to June, pulling sales forward. Zooming out, retail sales have run at a …
Sonu Varghese
August 14, 2026
Inflation’s Still A Problem, And Consumers Are Feeling The Heat
We’ve got a bit of a breather on the inflation front, with two consecutive benign readings. Headline CPI rose at an annualized pace of just 0.9% in July, after falling 5% in June, taking the 3-month annual pace to just 0.5%. Headline CPI is still up 3.4% from last year, reflecting an energy shock that …
Sonu Varghese
August 13, 2026
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve: A Primer for Today
Source Date: August 10, 2026 We have all seen the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the news this week as it dropped below 300 million barrels, a level not seen in more than 40 years. While that sounds ominous, and every American has been feeling the ongoing War with Iran in things like prices at …
Carson Research
August 12, 2026
Celebrating #200 With Art Hogan (FvF Ep. 200)
Celebrating 200 episodes, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take Facts vs Feelings on the road to Boston for a live show, joined by special guest Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth. Art opens by explaining his opinion on why the …
Ryan Detrick
August 12, 2026
Earnings Check-In: How Much of This Do We Keep?
Welcome to Carson Investment Research’s Earnings Check-In for the week ending August 7, 2026. This series is built weekly from FactSet’s Earnings Insight report (John Butters, VP, Senior Earnings Analyst with FactSet), with index weights and market caps sourced from YCharts, and aggregation performed in-house. We tie every figure to FactSet’s published numbers, then add …
Harry McDonald
August 11, 2026
Back to Your Regularly Scheduled Bull Market
“Bull markets are like a cruise ship. Once they get moving, they are hard to slow down, hard to stop, and very hard to turn around.” Ryan Detrick, Carson Group’s Chief Market Strategist Stocks soared last week, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 3.5% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq soared more than 5%, both making …
Ryan Detrick
August 11, 2026
Charts of the Week: August 3-7
Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week This week’s charts cover the latest payroll data, unemployment rates, return drivers, and the latest CapEx numbers. We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, click here: Charts of the Week: August 3-7
Carson Research
August 10, 2026