Sonu Varghese
There’re Reasons to Be Optimistic About Productivity
Productivity growth surged at an annual rate of 3.9% over the last three quarters of 2023, which is the largest non-recessionary gain we’ve seen since the late 1990s, and more than double the pace of productivity growth between 2005 and 2019. As we wrote in our 2024 Outlook, “Seeing Eye to Eye” (download here), productivity …
Sonu Varghese
February 9, 2024
Ignore the Doomers…This Is a Strong Economy!
It’s not like we needed a lot more proof that the economy is strong. If you listen to the doomsayers, it always seems like the economy is hanging on the edge of a precipice. Never mind the latest GDP report card, which showed the economy grew 3.1% in inflation-adjusted terms in 2023. Of course, it’s …
Sonu Varghese
February 2, 2024
Taylor Swift Isn’t the Only One Feeling Good, More Americans Are Too
Consumer confidence has been rising recently. Maybe it’s Taylor Swift, and her weekly Sunday appearances. Or maybe it’s rising stock prices, rising home prices, and falling gas prices. Ultimately, perhaps the best signal to draw from rising confidence is that the labor market is strong. Keep in mind that the close to 70% of the …
Sonu Varghese
January 31, 2024
The US Economy: This Time Was Different, and That’s a Big Deal
We got a rollicking GDP report on Thursday, showing the economy expanded at an annual pace of 3.3% after adjusting for inflation. That was well above forecasts of 1.8%. Yet again, the economy continues to be underestimated – a topic we’ve discussed on these pages time and time again. By now we were supposed to …
Sonu Varghese
January 26, 2024
Please Don’t Stress Yourself About “M2”
If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, read on, but maybe grab a cup of coffee or your favorite beverage. M2 is a measure of money in the economy, and right now it’s falling, which has led to any number of overhyped worries, including a deflationary recession and/or a stock market crash, as people are …
Sonu Varghese
January 24, 2024
Outlook ’24: Leading Economic Indicators Point to Continued Growth
Last year, the Carson Investment Research team did not see eye to eye on leading economic indicators compared to the widely used Conference Board Leading Economic Index. For 2024, our proprietary leading economic index (LEI) for the U.S. points to on-trend economic growth and remains far from a recession signal. Our index includes more than …
Sonu Varghese
January 24, 2024
Rate Cuts Are Now on the Horizon, But There’s Uncertainty Over Timing
We just released our 2024 Market Outlook, “Seeing Eye to Eye”. We took an unpopular contrarian stance in 2023, calling for the economic expansion to continue and stocks to post solid gains. This was based on what we saw in the data, and since then consensus opinion has moved toward our view in 2024. Still, …
Sonu Varghese
January 17, 2024
Outlook ’24: Productivity Growth Will Drive Economic Opportunity in 2024
While the Carson Investment Research team’s economic views for 2024 are more aligned with the consensus than in 2023, we take a different view on what the drivers of economic growth will be, emphasizing the upside from productivity growth that may differentiate the current central bank-tightening cycle from typical cases in the past. That view …
Sonu Varghese
January 17, 2024
We See No Signs of a Recession in 2024
We’re releasing our 2024 outlook this week, and a big part of our investment process involves understanding the economic backdrop. To that end, Carson Investment Research produces a Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for the US and 29 other countries, each one custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are …
Sonu Varghese
January 10, 2024
The Goldilocks Economy
The December payroll was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate staying at 3.7%. That’s the 23rd straight month in which the unemployment rate has remained below 4%, the longest stretch since the late 1960s – which should tell you that the economy is in a healthy place. …
Sonu Varghese
January 5, 2024