Articles authored by Sonu Varghese

The June CPI report was a positive surprise, both in terms of the headline numbers as well as the underlying details. Headline inflation rose 0.2% in June, which translates to a 2.2% annual pace. Over the past three months, inflation’s averaged about 2.7%, and over the last year it’s up 3.0%. That’s well off the …

We started this year discussing how the economy has been at the “edge of normal” in our 2023 outlook. The good news is that we have slowly but surely moved towards normal since then, even in the face of a banking crisis and debt ceiling drama. The “soft” economic data from sentiment surveys have been …

We’ve been getting a string of “economic surprises” from the consumer side for several months now. Employment data is a prime example, with monthly payroll gains coming in above expectations for 14 straight months. For a change, we just got some good news from the business side, particularly business investment. The Census Bureau collects data …

Rest in Peace, Dr./Professor Harry Markowitz, who passed last week at age 95. The picture shows him accepting the Nobel in Economics in 1990. Markowitz is known as the father of “Modern Portfolio Theory”, which for all practical purposes, told us that you should diversify your portfolio. Of course, it wasn’t like investors didn’t know …

I discussed housing in my prior blog, and how that’s good news for the economy. Single-family starts and permits have been surging recently, which is something you typically see when coming out of recessions. As opposed to something that happens prior to an economic slowdown. In fact, we look set to break an 8-quarter streak …

Last month I wrote about how the housing market is rebounding, which is a really good sign for the economy. As I noted in that piece, residential investment has been a drag on the economy for 8 straight quarters. No surprise why: The Federal Reserve (Fed) began its most aggressive policy tightening cycle in 40+ …

The Federal Reserve (Fed) didn’t raise rates in June, leaving the Federal Funds rate in the 5-5.25% range. This was the first meeting in which they held back ever since they started raising rates back in March 2022. However, the big news was that Fed members project rates to be 0.5%-points higher than what they …

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory. Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece …

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after …

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore? Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month. The economy created 339,000 jobs in …