Investments
The Dirty Dozen Equity Drawdowns Versus the Current Market
In our 2026 Outlook: Riding the Wave, we took a look at the average return for the S&P 500 (and the likelihood of a positive year) for all years versus only years when the economy is growing (avoids a recession), consistent with our base case for 2026. Not surprisingly, when you take recessions off the …
Barry Gilbert
February 18, 2026
Charts of the Week: Feb. 9-13
Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week. This week’s charts focus on the historic AI Capex cycle, crypto, and a little bit of macro data! On top of this, we end with a chart about Mondays… We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday (Even though today is Tuesday!). To view this …
Carson Research
February 17, 2026
Software’s Selloff
By Blake Anderson, CFA®, Associate Portfolio Manager 2026’s ‘Tech Wreck’ continues as investors extend their selloff in technology-related stocks. Investors have shied away from this industry as concerns about AI-fueled disruption to their core business models have risen. For investors with exposure to software, it may be informative to assess whether current prices signal valuation …
Blake Anderson
February 17, 2026
Spurious Correlations: Year of the Horse, Nick Cage Movies, and Friday the 13th
“Spurious: Outwardly similar or corresponding to something without having its genuine qualities.” Merriam-Webster Dictionary This will be a more fun blog, as I’ve always been fascinated by spurious correlations, or things that might go up and down together, but one doesn’t cause the other to move with it. Sometimes the connection is random; sometimes there’s …
Ryan Detrick
February 13, 2026
Job Report: Nevermind the Revisions, Focus on the Good News Here and Now
The January payroll report was widely anticipated because it was the first “clean” report after the messy post-shutdown reports from November and December, which were also delayed. We also got annual benchmark revisions to prior years’ data (which impacted data from 2021 through March 2025). The Bureau of Labor Statistics also made a methodological change …
Sonu Varghese
February 12, 2026
Is it Still (Crypto) Winter?
Like any good Midwesterner, the weather is top of mind most of the time, especially in the depths of winter. Like the stock market, there is no such thing as experiencing average temperature – just a combination of above-average and below-average. Right now, many of us are experiencing above-average temperatures and likely our first ‘false …
Grant Engelbart
February 11, 2026
Big Tech Capex Plans Are Ballooning – Is That Good or Bad?
When we wrote our 2026 Outlook: Riding The Wave, one thing we had in mind was surfing the artificial intelligence (AI) wave, not necessarily through immediate productivity gains or direct AI corporate profits, but through the massive infrastructure buildout it required (which does support broad corporate profits). As we noted then, this is a big …
Sonu Varghese
February 10, 2026
Charts of the Week: Feb. 2-6
Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week. This week’s charts focus on early-year market signals, AI’s familiar boom-bust rhythm, and subtle signs of consumer strain, with a few seasonality and Super Bowl quirks mixed in for fun. We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday (Even though today is Tuesday!). To view …
Carson Research
February 10, 2026
Tech Wreck
By Blake Anderson, CFA®, Associate Portfolio Manager Software-focused technology firms are among the weakest stocks so far this year. The pace and magnitude of this drawdown rival other notable bear markets and might have some investors calling 2026 a ‘tech wreck.’ Yet this weak price action – largely fueled by fear of AI disruption – …
Blake Anderson
February 6, 2026
McLarens and Minivans
Both a McLaren and a minivan are automobiles. Both provide transportation. Both have value. But what they are designed to do, and what they are optimized for, differs dramatically. A McLaren is built for speed, agility, and performance in environments where immediacy, visibility, and optionality matter. A minivan is built for reliability, capacity, and predictability, …
Kevin Bruce
February 5, 2026
Do Stocks Want the Seahawks or Patriots To Win?
“The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.” Vince Lombardi, Hall of Fame coach of the Green Bay Packers This Sunday is the big game! The Seattle Seahawks versus the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 60. First things first, don’t ever invest based on who wins the Super Bowl. Or what …
Ryan Detrick
February 4, 2026
12 Ways Politics Has Confounded and Confused Investors
As my colleague Ryan likes to always remind us, politics and investing don’t mix — it’s not about red or blue, it’s about green. Markets have gone up (and down) during Democratic and Republican administrations. Stocks have bull markets and bear markets under both parties. As Ryan wrote recently, many investors said they didn’t like …
Sonu Varghese
February 3, 2026