Barry Gilbert
Markets Coming Back to Our Rate View and How to Invest
If you haven’t read it already, in yesterday’s insightful blog, Carson’s Chief Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese provided an update on inflation expectations given the expanding (for now) conflict in the Middle East. For the basic takeaway, just look at the title: The Inflation Outlook Doesn’t Look Good. Now that’s not 2022 “doesn’t look good.” But …
Barry Gilbert
March 4, 2026
The Dirty Dozen Equity Drawdowns Versus the Current Market
In our 2026 Outlook: Riding the Wave, we took a look at the average return for the S&P 500 (and the likelihood of a positive year) for all years versus only years when the economy is growing (avoids a recession), consistent with our base case for 2026. Not surprisingly, when you take recessions off the …
Barry Gilbert
February 18, 2026
Rate Expectations Update: How Inflation Uncertainty May Impact Your Bond Portfolio
The 10-year Treasury yield has been climbing since bottoming at 3.95% on October 22 last year. While it’s not currently at its peak since then, it’s not far off with a close of 4.22% as of yesterday. We said in our Outlook 2026: Riding the Wave that we don’t think that lower short-term rates will …
Barry Gilbert
January 28, 2026
Takeaways from Five Unusual Things Markets Did in 2025
The S&P 500 could still top 20% three years in a row, something that’s only happened one other time since 1929. The EAFE Value Index is ahead of the Russell 1000 Growth Index by almost 20%-points—the last time EAFE Value outperformed in a year both were higher was 2006. The Bloomberg Gold Index is up …
Barry Gilbert
December 12, 2025
Stocks and Bond Charts We Believe Are the Most Important in the Long Run
I sometimes get asked about the most important things I consider when thinking about the longer-run outlook for markets. For me, the answer is easy. 1) In the long run, stocks track earnings because earnings drive returns. 2) In the long run, yields drive bond returns. That’s just two short sentences, but it’s the starting …
Barry Gilbert
November 14, 2025
Stocks Are to Lead Guitar as Bonds Are to Cowbell
High short-term yields and leftover anxiety from 2022 led to underinvestment in bonds in 2025. 2022 bond losses were unusual, but some bond volatility is not. 2025 returns were partially driven by yields being pulled down by rate cuts. We believe that process may have run its course for longer-term yields. Uncertainty still makes bonds …
Barry Gilbert
November 7, 2025
Could You Benefit from a Financial Advisor? 20 Key Questions
One of the most important myths when it comes to the value of a financial advisor is that the value lies primarily in selecting individual securities that provide better returns. But even when it comes just to portfolio returns (ignoring all the other ways a financial advisor helps clients reach financial goals), research suggests that’s …
Barry Gilbert
October 29, 2025
What Q3 Returns Told Us About What May Lie Ahead
The S&P 500 climbed 8.1% (including dividends) in the third quarter and made it five months in a row of gains to bring the index’s return to +14.8% for the year as of September 30. (Carson’s Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick shares insight on recent market strength in A Quarter for the History Books. Now …
Barry Gilbert
October 7, 2025
Inflation Read: On Track for a September Cut but not Out of the Woods Yet
The market cheered the July Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) inflation report released yesterday, August 13, 2025, but mostly because it was perceived to be good enough to keep the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) on track for a September rate cut. The market-implied odds for a September cut rose from 86% to 94% according to the CME …
Barry Gilbert
August 13, 2025
7 Policy Mistakes That Could Undermine Our Bullish Policy Outlook Updated
“If pro is the opposite of con, does that make progress the opposite of Congress?” -famous quip On July 20, we passed the first six months of the second Trump administration, or 1/8 of the way into Donald Trump’s second term. Over time we have been updating our view of potential policy risks, within the …
Barry Gilbert
August 7, 2025