Articles authored by Barry Gilbert

Closely Watched Leading Indicators Are Turning, and That May Be Good For Markets At Carson Investment Research, we have a proprietary set of leading indicators for countries and regions that inform our process and kept us clear of near universal recession calls at the end of 2022. (For the most recent update of our indicators, …

Carson Investment Research just released our 2024 Market Outlook, “Seeing Eye to Eye”. While our view on the economy leads us to favor stocks over bonds in 2024, we believe that bonds are poised to return to their traditional roles as a portfolio stabilizer and source of diversification. One traditional role they’re already playing again: …

2023 is now in the books. It was a year that no-one expected, but to the upside, which is the way we would all have it. The anticipated recession that didn’t come was overpriced into the market with 2022’s S&P 500 decline of 18%. Those declines helped the index power ahead to a 26.3% gain …

Probably the top fixed income question we’ve received in 2023 is when it’s appropriate to begin moving bond allocations from ultra-short-maturity bonds and money market funds back into core bonds. Gauging by 2024 rate hike expectations, the answer is probably sometime around now. The “perfect” time, assuming rates have peaked, was October 19 of this …

With many people on the road to visit family or preparing to host, we thought we would do a simple blog today on markets to be thankful for. We put a little wrinkle in it, though, by looking at how far different indexes are from their high and their low dating back to the start …

Forward earnings growth forecasts are a lagging indicator for markets. Truth be told, most data when reported is largely a lagging indicator for markets, since markets tend to be forward looking. Markets tend to respond to a combination of long-term fundamentals, which drive baseline expectations, surprises and shocks, and sentiment. However, it’s still very important …

The sell-off in bonds from August 6, 2020 to October 24, 2022 was dramatic and difficult. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) is actually up 3.6% off of the October 2022 lows despite additional volatility this year. We are often asked when it’s safe to add bond duration (the sensitivity of a bond or …

2023 was a year many economists and economic models called for a recession only to see accelerating growth; a year when soft data surveys and hard data economic “facts” diverged, with hard data presenting a better picture; and a year when inflation fears remained elevated even as inflation fell. We do not want to minimize …

As bond yields have risen, stock valuations have grown more expensive relative to bonds. We do believe this reduces the equity risk premium, but it doesn’t erase it. Expected earnings growth rates remain largely consistent with history, providing a solid fundamental basis for stock gains if realized. Overall, we still expect stocks to earn a …

We have received several questions about the potential market impact of Hamas’ brutal terrorist attack on Israel, the Israeli response, and the on-going aftermath. Thinking about these kinds of issues is our job, but we are also well aware that these considerations are trivial compared to the events themselves and the lives they impact. Looking …