Articles authored by Barry Gilbert
Why We Believe Rates Will Be Higher for Longer and What It Means for Bond Investors
“We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies.” -Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell The Fed is likely underestimating the neutral level of the fed funds rate, which it had at 2.6% in its last summary of economic projections, and will probably need to revise it higher. We believe the Fed’s neutral rate is …
Bonds Just Finished Their Roughest Three-Month Seasonal Period
In yesterday’s blog, our chief market strategist Ryan Detrick took a look at “Sell in May and go away” and provided a lot of important insight on what it may mean in current market context. While we’re entering a period of historical seasonal weakness, the seasonals alone aren’t strong enough to drive a change in …
What’s Happening with Interest Rates
We’ve been getting a lot of questions about the interest rate environment, and especially what might happen to longer-term rates if the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) begins to cut the fed funds rate, even though the short-term increase in rates has been front of mind, but we’ll cover that as well. I’m going to cut to …
5 Takeaways from Q1 to Keep in Mind the Rest of the Year
One of the hardest things to do as an investor is to look forward rather than look backward, which is why having a long-term plan is always so important. Still, there’s a lot we can learn about looking backwards if we’re focused on what it means for what comes next. Sometimes, that means going with …
Leading Indicators Catch Up With the Economy
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) gained month over month in February after 23 consecutive months of declines. Carson Investment Research’s proprietary leading indicator, which never signaled recession, continues to point to near-trend growth, versus the Conference Board’s forecast of slowing growth. The end of extended Conference Board LEI declines has generally been a …
Have Stock Returns Been Too Good? The Strategic Perspective
We often get asked about whether stock returns have been just too good in the near term and have formed a speculative bubble. Our Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick debunked that idea in his blog yesterday. But occasionally we also get asked whether returns have been too good over the longer term. We take a …
First Quarter Returns Aiming for the Sweet Spot
Today is the Ides of March, as March 15 is called. Known best for the day on which Julius Caeser was assassinated, it was also celebrated in pagan antiquity as the Feast of Anna Perenna, the goddess of the Wheel of the Year, and marked the end of the New Year festivities. March was the …
The 2024 Election – Tale of the Tape
The dust has settled on Super Tuesday, and it looks like the parties have chosen their champions for the November general election. Outside of American Samoa, Vermont, and Washington DC, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have won every state for their respective parties. Barring something unusual, the 2024 election will be a …
NVIDIA’s Blockbuster Earnings All About the Supply/Demand Imbalances for AI
“Oh NVIDIA, oh NVIDIA, say have you met NVIDIA? NVIDIA the AI chip maker?” -Groucho Marx (adapted) In yesterday’s blog by my colleague Jake Bleicher we took a look at chipmaker NVIDIA’s latest earnings report and the wide range of places where artificial intelligence (AI) is being deployed. Today we take another look and some …
Five Basic Questions on Investing in Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence (AI) had two big moments in the popular imagination over the last two years: the extremely successful rollout of ChatGPT in late 2022 and chipmaker Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings report in May 2023. While these moments captured the public imagination, AI has already been playing an important role for many businesses and in our …