Sonu Varghese
Job Report: Nevermind the Revisions, Focus on the Good News Here and Now
The January payroll report was widely anticipated because it was the first “clean” report after the messy post-shutdown reports from November and December, which were also delayed. We also got annual benchmark revisions to prior years’ data (which impacted data from 2021 through March 2025). The Bureau of Labor Statistics also made a methodological change …
Sonu Varghese
February 12, 2026
Big Tech Capex Plans Are Ballooning – Is That Good or Bad?
When we wrote our 2026 Outlook: Riding The Wave, one thing we had in mind was surfing the artificial intelligence (AI) wave, not necessarily through immediate productivity gains or direct AI corporate profits, but through the massive infrastructure buildout it required (which does support broad corporate profits). As we noted then, this is a big …
Sonu Varghese
February 10, 2026
12 Ways Politics Has Confounded and Confused Investors
As my colleague Ryan likes to always remind us, politics and investing don’t mix — it’s not about red or blue, it’s about green. Markets have gone up (and down) during Democratic and Republican administrations. Stocks have bull markets and bear markets under both parties. As Ryan wrote recently, many investors said they didn’t like …
Sonu Varghese
February 3, 2026
Fed Chair Race: The Game Is Afoot, and Gold Benefits
The Fed left policy rates unchanged in the 3.50-3.75% range at their January meeting, as expected. This is the first pause in four meetings, as they cut 0.75%-points over their last three meetings in 2025. The official statement nodded to an improved labor market with lower downside risk to employment. That may seem like a …
Sonu Varghese
January 29, 2026
One Year Later, Policy Continues To Go Wild
President Trump took office a year ago, and markets continue to be driven by his policy ambitions. Especially tariffs. In our 2025 Outlook we warned that tariffs were a looming threat. That materialized in dramatic fashion on Liberation Day (April 2nd, 2025), but as we noted a year ago, President Trump likely sees the stock …
Sonu Varghese
January 20, 2026
Incoming Tailwind: Tax Cuts
We’ve been talking about the fiscal impulse from the individual tax cuts coming for a while now, and highlighted this as a potential tailwind in our 2026 Outlook: Riding the Wave. Here’s what we wrote in our Outlook: “The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is going to increase deficits by about $4 trillion over …
Sonu Varghese
January 16, 2026
What Is the Inflation Data Really Telling Us?
The December CPI release was an important one because it closes the book on 2025. Here’s how headline and core CPI inflation (ex food and energy) have ended each of the last 4 years: By itself, the drop in inflation is more than welcome, and allows the Fed to focus on labor market risks. But …
Sonu Varghese
January 14, 2026
There’s Still No “All Is Well” Sign From the Labor Market
The payroll report for the final month of 2025 stayed true to form, with the data all pointing in different directions. The big picture remains the same — a lot of people are working, but hiring is weak for a few reasons. Employers across industries appear reluctant to hire amid economic uncertainty and policy headwinds, …
Sonu Varghese
January 9, 2026
2025: What We Got Right, and Wrong
As we get ready to release our 2026 Outlook, I thought now would be a good time to revisit our 2025 Outlook. I recognize this is rare in our world, as it’s not often you see strategists revisit and reevaluate their calls. We don’t really think of ourselves as forecasters in the strict sense of …
Sonu Varghese
January 6, 2026
7 Charts From an Outstanding Q3 GDP Report
Normally by the end of the quarter we get the second estimate for the prior quarter’s GDP growth (which is slightly more reliable than the first estimate). In the case of this Q3 GDP report, we missed the first estimate because of the shutdown and so the second estimate was the first full picture we …
Sonu Varghese
December 30, 2025