Federal Reserve Preview: Powell and Trump Maintain an Uncomfortable Truce
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day policy meeting tomorrow and the market implied odds that they will not cut rates, via CME’s FedWatch tool is 99.83%. (I can’t help but hear “So you’re saying there’s a chance” in my head in reaction, but yes there’s a near zero chance of a cut since the Fed doesn’t …
Apple’s Conference Leaves a Sour Taste
Apple hosted their annual World Wide Developers Conference (“WWDC”) last week. The event is a showcase of many software updates and is meant to serve as inspiration for iOS developers to create new App-store offerings. This year’s WWDC featured a host of updates, but largely did not meet investors’ expectations for AI-focused innovations. Key mentions …
More Chaos, but That Shouldn’t Be a Surprise
Thursday, June 12, has been a tragic and exhausting day. It started with the terrible crash of an Air India flight in India, killing over 250 people—the worst aviation disaster in India since 1996. Then the day ended with Israel striking Iran, targeting their nuclear program and killing several top Iranian military officials (including the …
Welcome to the Start of a New Bull Market?
“The more things change, the more they stay the same.” French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr What a run stocks have been on the past two months! We came into this year with everyone all bulled up after back-to-back 20% years, then stocks tanked in historic fashion after Liberation Day, so those same bullish Strategists and …
11 Charts That Explain the Housing Strain
The May payroll report showed that labor markets remain OK, at least on the surface. As I wrote in my payroll blog, there’s weakness under the hood, but surface resiliency means the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to stay on pause for a lot longer—unless the unemployment rate really picks up, and then we have …
Bromance, Interrupted
In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, unpack the political feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk — and what it signals for markets, sentiment, and investor behavior. But this episode covers more than just political drama: Ryan and Sonu break down what recent data …
The Rocky Balboa Market
“You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life, but it ain’t about how hard you can hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done!” Rocky Balboa in Rocky Balboa (aka Rocky VI from …
IPO Momentum Continues
Strong recent activity and returns in the IPO market continue to provide a gauge that investor sentiment is high. As I wrote previously, IPO activity across major U.S. exchanges has largely rebounded to long-term average levels. Post-IPO returns reveal a meaningful divergence between technology and non-technology companies, mirroring the recent bull market in tech-related stocks. …
May Payrolls Were OK, but There’s Weakness Under the Hood
On the face of it, the May payroll report was ok. The economy created 139,000 jobs in May (above expectations for a 126,000 increase) and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. But pop the hood and there’s cause for concern. For one thing, we got a net 95,000 downward revision of jobs created in …
The Big Picture: The US Economy Is Losing Steam
We can use fairly timely economic data without having to wait for GDP data or calls from a “recession dating committee” (at the National Bureau of Economic Research) to gauge whether the economy is close to or in a recession, or even recovering for that matter. This includes data like initial unemployment claims, unemployment rate, …
12 Amazing Facts About the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Its Birthday
We had a big birthday last week, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned 129 years young! It is the second oldest index (the Dow Jones Transportation Average is older) and was first calculated on May 26, 1896 by Charles Dow, co-founder of both the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones & Company. It started …
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Outlook 2025: Animal Spirits
The economy had a big year in 2024, avoiding a recession while posting strong job numbers and a soaring stock market. But will it stay that way?