Articles authored by Sonu Varghese

Warren Buffett just released his 2023 shareholder letter, and as always, it was a masterclass in explaining corporate finance concepts in simple English (something all of us can aspire to). Buffett also had a nice tribute to his long-time business partner/friend, Charlie Munger, who passed a few months ago. One thing in that tribute caught …

We’re starting to see a bounce in consumer confidence as Americans increasingly recognize the strength of the economy. Keep in mind that the economy grew 3.1% in inflation-adjusted terms last year, well above the 2010-2019 trend of around 2.5%. So, it’s welcome news that the soft sentiment data is catching up to the strong hard …

Ouch! That was my reaction to the hotter-than-expected January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, though that was mild compared to what happened in markets. The S&P 500 fell 1.4% on Tuesday. Bond prices fell as well, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields jumping 0.14%-points to 4.63% and 4.31%, respectively. This was on the back of …

Productivity growth surged at an annual rate of 3.9% over the last three quarters of 2023, which is the largest non-recessionary gain we’ve seen since the late 1990s, and more than double the pace of productivity growth between 2005 and 2019. As we wrote in our 2024 Outlook, “Seeing Eye to Eye” (download here), productivity …

It’s not like we needed a lot more proof that the economy is strong. If you listen to the doomsayers, it always seems like the economy is hanging on the edge of a precipice. Never mind the latest GDP report card, which showed the economy grew 3.1% in inflation-adjusted terms in 2023. Of course, it’s …

Consumer confidence has been rising recently. Maybe it’s Taylor Swift, and her weekly Sunday appearances. Or maybe it’s rising stock prices, rising home prices, and falling gas prices. Ultimately, perhaps the best signal to draw from rising confidence is that the labor market is strong. Keep in mind that the close to 70% of the …

We got a rollicking GDP report on Thursday, showing the economy expanded at an annual pace of 3.3% after adjusting for inflation. That was well above forecasts of 1.8%. Yet again, the economy continues to be underestimated – a topic we’ve discussed on these pages time and time again. By now we were supposed to …

If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, read on, but maybe grab a cup of coffee or your favorite beverage. M2 is a measure of money in the economy, and right now it’s falling, which has led to any number of overhyped worries, including a deflationary recession and/or a stock market crash, as people are …

Last year, the Carson Investment Research team did not see eye to eye on leading economic indicators compared to the widely used Conference Board Leading Economic Index. For 2024, our proprietary leading economic index (LEI) for the U.S. points to on-trend economic growth and remains far from a recession signal. Our index includes more than …

We just released our 2024 Market Outlook, “Seeing Eye to Eye”. We took an unpopular contrarian stance in 2023, calling for the economic expansion to continue and stocks to post solid gains. This was based on what we saw in the data, and since then consensus opinion has moved toward our view in 2024. Still, …